ArticleIranian journal of public health2021
Estimating the Lifetime and Age-Conditional Risk of an HIV Diagnosis in Iran, 2011-2015.
Article in Iranian journal of public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundAccording to the importance of infectious diseases, especially HIV, the purpose of this study was to estimate lifetime and age-conditional risks of HIV diagnosis in Iran.
methodsWe used vital statistics, HIV surveillance and census data for 2011-2015 to calculate Age-specific HIV diagnosis and non-HIV death rates. These rates then converted to the probability of an HIV diagnosis considering the competing risk. Finally, the probabilities were applied to a hypothetical cohort of 10 million live births. The lifetime and age-conditional risk of HIV diagnosis in the total and general population of Iran were calculated by Dev Can software (version 6.7.4).
resultsLifetime risk was 0.084% (95% CI: 0.081-0.088) or one in 1183 for females and 0.21% (95% CI: 0.201-0.211) or one in 483 for males in the total population. In the general population lifetime risk for men was 0.069% (95% CI: 0.066-0.072) or 1 in 1454 men and 0.066% (95%CI: 0.063-0.069) or one in 1523 for women. In the total and general population, the 10-yr age-conditional risk of HIV diagnosis showed that the highest risk of an HIV diagnosis is related to 30-yr -olds.
conclusionThe estimated risks differed based on gender, age, and type of population. Paying close attention to these differences is critical for infection control planning and policies.
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