ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2021
Antigenic waves of virus-immune coevolution.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
30 citing papers in PubMed.
- A recurrent adaptive mutation in the transmembrane 2B protein of an insect picorna-like virus in a nonnative host.Journal of virology · 2026Article
- O-GlcNAcylation: A Nutrient-Sensitive Metabolic Rheostat in Antiviral Immunity and Viral Pathogenesis.Cells · 2025Review
- Interleukin-22 functions to alleviate hypoxia-induced intestinal inflammation by modulating pro- and anti-inflammatory factors inZoological research · 2025Article
- Sociohydrodynamics: Data-driven modeling of social behavior.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- A minimal model of panimmunity maintenance by horizontal gene transfer in the ecological dynamics of bacteria and phages.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Trait-space patterning is dictated by the tempo and mode of mutation.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Trends of respiratory viruses and factors associated with severe acute respiratory infection in patients presenting at a university hospital: a 6-year retrospective study across the COVID-19 pandemic.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Article
- Measures of Population Immunity Can Predict the Dominant Clade of Influenza A (H3N2) in the 2017-2018 Season and Reveal Age-Associated Differences in Susceptibility and Antibody-Binding Specificity.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2024Article
- Measures of population immunity can predict the dominant clade of influenza A (H3N2) in the 2017-2018 season and reveal age-associated differences in susceptibility and antibody-binding specificity.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- A speed limit on serial strain replacement from original antigenic sin.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- A speed limit on serial strain replacement from original antigenic sin.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2024Article
- A panel of hepatitis C virus glycoproteins for the characterization of antibody responses using antibodies with diverse recognition and neutralization patterns.Virus research · 2024Article
- Preexisting inter-serotype immunity drives antigenic evolution of dengue virus serotype 2.Virology · 2024Article
- Article
- Steering and controlling evolution - from bioengineering to fighting pathogens.Nature reviews. Genetics · 2023Review
- Evolutionary stability of antigenically escaping viruses.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Virus hijacking of host epigenetic machinery to impair immune response.Journal of virology · 2023Review
- Using interpretable machine learning to extend heterogeneous antibody-virus datasets.Cell reports methods · 2023Article
- Evolutionary implications of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination for the future design of vaccination strategies.Communications medicine · 2023Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The evolution of many microbes and pathogens, including circulating viruses such as seasonal influenza, is driven by immune pressure from the host population. In turn, the immune systems of infected populations get updated, chasing viruses even farther away. Quantitatively understanding how these dynamics result in observed patterns of rapid pathogen and immune adaptation is instrumental to epidemiological and evolutionary forecasting. Here we present a mathematical theory of coevolution between immune systems and viruses in a finite-dimensional antigenic space, which describes the cross-reactivity of viral strains and immune systems primed by previous infections. We show the emergence of an antigenic wave that is pushed forward and canalized by cross-reactivity. We obtain analytical results for shape, speed, and angular diffusion of the wave. In particular, we show that viral-immune coevolution generates an emergent timescale, the persistence time of the wave's direction in antigenic space, which can be much longer than the coalescence time of the viral population. We compare these dynamics to the observed antigenic turnover of influenza strains, and we discuss how the dimensionality of antigenic space impacts the predictability of the evolutionary dynamics. Our results provide a concrete and tractable framework to describe pathogen-host coevolution.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.