Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34179672›Full record

ArticleGeoHealth2021

Optimizing Spatial Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccine by Agent-Based Spatiotemporal Simulations.

Shuli Zhou, Suhong Zhou, Zhong Zheng, Junwen Lu

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in GeoHealth, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
28citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
4.2field-weighted citation impact, top 5% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

28 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 53 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  13. Improving the Efficiency of Geographic Target Regions for Healthcare Interventions.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Shuli ZhouSchool of Geography and Planning Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8532-5581
Suhong ZhouSchool of Geography and Planning Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1900-0671
Zhong ZhengCenter for Territorial Spatial Planning and Real Estate Studies Beijing Normal University Zhuhai China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4899-8792
Junwen LuSchool of Geography and Planning Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8696-7209
Sun Yat-sen University · CNBeijing Normal University · CN

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Optimizing allocation of vaccine, a highly scarce resource, is an urgent and critical issue during fighting against on-going COVID-19 epidemic. Prior studies suggested that vaccine should be prioritized by age and risk groups, but few of them have considered the spatial prioritization strategy. This study aims to examine the spatial heterogeneity of COVID-19 transmission in the city naturally, and optimize vaccine distribution strategies considering spatial prioritization. We proposed an integrated spatial model of agent-based model and SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered). It simulated spatiotemporal process of COVID-19 transmission in a realistic urban context. Individual movements were represented by trajectories of 8,146 randomly sampled mobile phone users on December 28, 2016 in Guangzhou, China, 90% of whom aged 18-60. Simulations were conducted under seven scenarios. Scenarios 1 and 2 examined natural spreading process of COVID-19 and its final state of herd immunity. Scenarios 3-6 applied four vaccination strategies (random strategy, age strategy, space strategy, and space & age strategy), and identified the optimal vaccine strategy. Scenario 7 assessed the most appropriate vaccine coverage. The results demonstrates herd immunity is heterogeneously distributed in space, thus, vaccine intervention strategies should be spatialized. Among four strategies, space & age strategy is substantially most efficient, with 7.7% fewer in attack rate and 44 days longer than random strategy under 20% vaccine uptake. Space & age strategy requires 30%-40% vaccine coverage to control the epidemic, while the coverage for a random strategy is 60%-70% as a comparison. The application of our research would greatly improves the effectiveness of the vaccine usability.

Identifiers

PMID34179672
PMCPMC8207830
OpenAlexW3165030003

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.