Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34176029›Full record

ArticleJournal of mathematical biology2021

Optimal control of an SIR epidemic through finite-time non-pharmaceutical intervention.

David I Ketcheson

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of mathematical biology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Confinement tonicity on epidemic spreading.Journal of mathematical biology · 2024
    Article
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  5. Minimizing the epidemic final size while containing the infected peak prevalence in SIR systems.Automatica : the journal of IFAC, the International Federation of Automatic Control · 2022
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

1 author.

David I KetchesonComputer, Electrical, and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, 4700 KAUST, Thuwal, 23955, Saudi Arabia. david.ketcheson@kaust.edu.sa.ORCID 0000-0002-1212-126X

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We consider the problem of controlling an SIR-model epidemic by temporarily reducing the rate of contact within a population. The control takes the form of a multiplicative reduction in the contact rate of infectious individuals. The control is allowed to be applied only over a finite time interval, while the objective is to minimize the total number of individuals infected in the long-time limit, subject to some cost function for the control. We first consider the no-cost scenario and analytically determine the optimal control and solution. We then study solutions when a cost of intervention is included, as well as a cost associated with overwhelming the available medical resources. Examples are studied through the numerical solution of the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. Finally, we provide some examples related directly to the current pandemic.

Indexed as

Communicable DiseasesEpidemicsHumans34H0549L1249N9092-1092D30

Identifiers

PMID34176029
PMCPMC8235921

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.