ArticleBMC medical research methodology2021
Comparison of six statistical methods for interrupted time series studies: empirical evaluation of 190 published series.
Article in BMC medical research methodology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 80 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
80 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Interrupted time series datasets from studies investigating the impact of interventions or exposures in public health and social science: a data note.BMC research notes · 2025Pooled it
- Comparison of statistical methods used to meta-analyse results from interrupted time series studies: an empirical study.BMC medical research methodology · 2024Pooled it
- Evaluation of statistical methods used to meta-analyse results from interrupted time series studies: A simulation study.Research synthesis methods · 2023Pooled it
- Effect estimates can be accurately calculated with data digitally extracted from interrupted time series graphs.Research synthesis methods · 2023Pooled it
- Impact of immunization strategies, public health and social measures on the incidence of varicella among children aged 0-14 years in Quzhou City.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2026Article
- Transfer-workflow optimization in a regional chest pain center network reduces door-in-door-out time in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: An interrupted time-series study with spectral validation.International journal of cardiology. Heart & vasculature · 2026Article
- Integration of Behavioral Health by Community Health Workers Into a Lifestyle Intervention That Addresses Reduction of Risk for Cardiovascular Disease in Rural Communities.Preventing chronic disease · 2026Article
- Real-Time Physical Activity Self-Monitoring in Patients Hospitalized for Cardiology Care: Interrupted Time Series Analysis.JMIR cardio · 2026Article
- Actionable osteoporosis alerts in musculoskeletal radiology reports improve secondary fracture prevention after orthopaedic fragility fractures.Archives of osteoporosis · 2026Article
- A seasonally explicit counterfactual framework reveals incomplete turbidity recovery in a tropical river seven years after a major mine-tailings disaster.Environmental monitoring and assessment · 2026Article
- The impact of the regime change on polio outbreaks in Afghanistan.BMJ global health · 2026Observational
- Are We in Control? How Best to Include a Control Group in Interrupted Time Series Designs: A Simulation Study.Journal of evaluation in clinical practice · 2026Article
- A Comprehensive Simulation Study to Evaluate the Effect Size and Study Length Relationship in Single-Group Interrupted Time Series Analysis.Evaluation & the health professions · 2026Article
- A Stratification Method for Identifying Subgroups at High-Risk for Type 2 Diabetes in sub-Saharan Africa.Nature communications · 2026Article
- An investigation of discrepancies in outcome reporting and selective reporting bias in interrupted time series studies of health interventions: a methodological study.BMC public health · 2026Article
- HIV/AIDS Mortality Trends in Peru: A Natural Experiment of COVID-19's Disruption and Health Disparities (2017-2024).AIDS and behavior · 2026Article
- Accelerating tuberculosis diagnosis in Mozambican prisons using digital chest X-rays with computer-aided detection: a longitudinal, comprehensive health intervention.BMC global and public health · 2026Article
- Help-seeking for gambling problems following expansion of Ontario's online gambling market and legalization of single-event sports betting.CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne · 2026Article
- Evaluation of statistical methods in R for estimating intervention effects using segmented linear regression in the AB interrupted time series design.BMC medical research methodology · 2026Article
- Age-specific impact of COVID-19 on birth rates in Japan: An interrupted time-series analysis using national vital statistics.PloS one · 2026Article
20 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe Interrupted Time Series (ITS) is a quasi-experimental design commonly used in public health to evaluate the impact of interventions or exposures. Multiple statistical methods are available to analyse data from ITS studies, but no empirical investigation has examined how the different methods compare when applied to real-world datasets.
methodsA random sample of 200 ITS studies identified in a previous methods review were included. Time series data from each of these studies was sought. Each dataset was re-analysed using six statistical methods. Point and confidence interval estimates for level and slope changes, standard errors, p-values and estimates of autocorrelation were compared between methods.
resultsFrom the 200 ITS studies, including 230 time series, 190 datasets were obtained. We found that the choice of statistical method can importantly affect the level and slope change point estimates, their standard errors, width of confidence intervals and p-values. Statistical significance (categorised at the 5% level) often differed across the pairwise comparisons of methods, ranging from 4 to 25% disagreement. Estimates of autocorrelation differed depending on the method used and the length of the series.
conclusionsThe choice of statistical method in ITS studies can lead to substantially different conclusions about the impact of the interruption. Pre-specification of the statistical method is encouraged, and naive conclusions based on statistical significance should be avoided.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.