ArticleThe Lancet regional health. Western Pacific2020
Modelling lockdown and exit strategies for COVID-19 in Singapore.
Article in The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Incorporating Social Determinants of Health in Infectious Disease Models: A Systematic Review of Guidelines.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2024Pooled it
- Global oral health policies and recommendations for children with special health care needs and their applicability and effectiveness during the COVID -19 pandemic: a systematic review.Evidence-based dentistry · 2024Pooled it
- Assessing vertical transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in high-rise apartments via a joint epidemiologic and modeling investigation.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- BharatSim: An agent-based modelling framework for India.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Mathematical model explains differences in Omicron and Delta SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in Caco-2 and Calu-3 cells.PeerJ · 2024Article
- Quantitative Framework for Establishing Low-Risk Inter-District Travel Corridors During COVID-19.Transportation research record · 2023Article
- The SEIR model incorporating asymptomatic cases, behavioral measures, and lockdowns: Lesson learned from the COVID-19 flow in Sweden.Biomedical signal processing and control · 2023Article
- Social contact patterns in Japan in the COVID-19 pandemic during and after the Tokyo Olympic Games.Journal of global health · 2022Article
- The effect of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions on oswestry disability index scores: a comparative cross-sectional study.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2022Observational
- Global-scale modeling of early factors and country-specific trajectories of COVID-19 incidence: a cross-sectional study of the first 6 months of the pandemic.BMC public health · 2022Observational
- Optimal Social Distancing Policy for COVID-19 Control in Korea: A Model-Based Analysis.Journal of Korean medical science · 2022Article
- Navigating travel in Europe during the pandemic: from mobile apps, certificates and quarantine to traffic-light system.Journal of travel medicine · 2022Article
- Modelling the Impact of Mass Testing to Transition from Pandemic Mitigation to Endemic COVID-19.Viruses · 2022Article
- Dentists' situation and their needs during the COVID-19 pandemic in Nepal: an online questionnaire survey.BMC oral health · 2022Article
- Optimal COVID-19 lockdown strategies in an age-structured SEIR model of Northern Ireland.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- Impact of national culture on the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic.Current psychology (New Brunswick, N.J.) · 2022Article
- Impact of pre-event testing and quarantine on reducing the risk of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Decision support system for ranking relevant indicators for reopening strategies following COVID-19 lockdowns.Quality & quantity · 2022Article
- Mathematical modelling of SARS-CoV-2 infection of human and animal host cells reveals differences in the infection rates and delays in viral particle production by infected cells.Journal of theoretical biology · 2021Article
- The impact of COVID-19 on access to dental care for people with disabilities: a global survey during the COVID-19 first wave lockdown.Medicina oral, patologia oral y cirugia bucal · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundWith at least 94 countries undergoing or exiting lockdowns for contact suppression to control the COVID-19 outbreak, sustainable and public health-driven exit strategies are required. Here we explore the impact of lockdown and exit strategies in Singapore for immediate planning.
methodsWe use an agent-based model to examine the impacts of epidemic control over 480 days. A limited control baseline of case isolation and household member quarantining is used. We measure the impact of lockdown duration and start date on final infection attack sizes. We then apply a 3-month gradual exit strategy, immediately re-opening schools and easing workplace distancing measures, and compare this to long-term social distancing measures.
findingsAt baseline, we estimated 815 400 total infections (21.6% of the population). Early lockdown at 5 weeks with no exit strategy averted 18 500 (2.27% of baseline averted), 21 300 (2.61%) and 22 400 (2.75%) infections for 6, 8 and 9-week lockdown durations. Using the exit strategy averted a corresponding 114 700, 121 700 and 126 000 total cases, representing 12.07-13.06% of the total epidemic size under baseline. This diminishes to 9 900-11 300 for a late 8-week start time. Long-term social distancing at 6 and 8-week durations are viable but less effective.
interpretationGradual release exit strategies are critical to maintain epidemic suppression under a new normal. We present final infection attack sizes assuming the ongoing importation of cases, which require preparation for a potential second epidemic wave due to ongoing epidemics elsewhere.
fundingSingapore Ministry of Health, Singapore Population Health Improvement Centre.
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