ArticlePublic health in practice (Oxford, England)2020
COVID-19 zugzwang: Potential public health moves towards population (herd) immunity.
Article in Public health in practice (Oxford, England), 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 28 citations in OpenAlex.
- Multi-perspectives systematic review on the applications of sentiment analysis for vaccine hesitancy.Computers in biology and medicine · 2021Pooled it
- Evaluation of the diagnostic accuracy of COVID-19 antigen tests: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Journal of the Chinese Medical Association : JCMA · 2021Pooled it
- Diagnostic Accuracy of SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Tests for Community Transmission Screening: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Pooled it
- Vaccines for COVID-19: learning from ten phase II trials to inform clinical and public health vaccination programmes.Public health · 2021Pooled it
- COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy: a social media analysis using deep learning.Annals of operations research · 2022Article
- Population perspective comparing COVID-19 to all and common causes of death during the first wave of the pandemic in seven European countries.Public health in practice (Oxford, England) · 2021Article
- Correlates of intended COVID-19 vaccine acceptance across time and countries: results from a series of cross-sectional surveys.BMJ open · 2021Article
- Should lockdown be based on age rather than geography?Public health · 2021Article
- COVID-19-why open and honest public dialogue is needed: Porter's reflections on the ethical dilemmas of age rather than geographical based lockdowns are noteworthy.Public health · 2021Article
- COVID-19, natural vulnerability and zugzwang.Journal of public health (Oxford, England) · 2021Article
- COVID-19 deaths in children: comparison with all- and other causes and trends in incidence of mortality.Public health · 2020Article
- COVID19 - Why open and honest public dialogue is needed.Public health · 2020Article
- A history of herd immunity.Lancet (London, England) · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
1 author at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
COVID-19 is pandemic, and likely to become endemic, possibly returning with greater virulence. Outlining potential public health actions, including hygiene measures, social distancing and face masks, and realistic future advances, this paper focuses on the consequences of taking no public health action; the role of natural changes such as weather; the adverse public health consequences of lockdowns; testing for surveillance and research purposes; testing to identify cases and contacts, including the role of antibody tests; the public health value of treatments; mobilising people who have recovered; population (a synonym for herd) immunity through vaccination and through natural infection; involving the entire population; and the need for public debate. Until there is a vaccine, population immunity is going to occur only from infection. Allowing infection in those at very low risk while making it safer for them and wider society needs consideration but is currently taboo. About 40-50% population immunity is sufficient to suppress an infection with a reproduction number of about 1 or slightly more. Importantly, in children and young people COVID-19 is currently rarely fatal, roughly comparable with influenza. The balance between the damage caused by COVID-19 and that caused by lockdowns needs quantifying. Public debate, including on population immunity, informed by epidemiological data, is now urgent.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.