Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34172729›Full record

ArticleNature communications2021

Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa.

Alizée Chemison, Gilles Ramstein, Adrian M Tompkins, Dimitri Defrance, Guigone Camus, Margaux Charra, Cyril Caminade

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed
1.4field-weighted citation impact, top 16% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 27 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. The effect of climate change and temperature extremes onJournal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024
    Article
  4. Climate change, malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a scoping review.Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · 2024
    Article
  5. Spatial spillovers of violent conflict amplify the impacts of climate variability on malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Review
  8. Antimalarial potential ofThe journal of venomous animals and toxins including tropical diseases · 2023
    Article
  9. PredictingFrontiers in microbiology · 2023
    Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 3 institutions in 3 countries.

Alizée ChemisonLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnnment (LSCE), CEA, Gif-sur-Yvette, France. alizee.chemison@lsce.ipsl.fr.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3969-4030
Gilles RamsteinLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnnment (LSCE), CEA, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1522-917X
Adrian M TompkinsAbdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0975-6691
Dimitri DefranceThe Climate Data factory, Paris, France.
Guigone CamusLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnnment (LSCE), CEA, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
Margaux CharraLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnnment (LSCE), CEA, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
Cyril CaminadeDepartment of Livestock and One Health, Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives · FRThe Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) · ITUniversity of Liverpool · GB

Funding

Department of Health
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Studies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios. These scenarios do not account for the non-linear dynamics of the climate system. A rapid ice-sheet melting could occur, impacting climate and consequently societies. Here, we investigate the additional impact of a rapid ice-sheet melting of Greenland on climate and malaria transmission in Africa using several malaria models driven by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace climate simulations. Results reveal that our melting scenario could moderate the simulated increase in malaria risk over East Africa, due to cooling and drying effects, cause a largest decrease in malaria transmission risk over West Africa and drive malaria emergence in southern Africa associated with a significant southward shift of the African rain-belt. We argue that the effect of such ice-sheet melting should be investigated further in future public health and agriculture climate change risk assessments.

Indexed as

Ice CoverAnimalsAnophelesGlobal WarmingGreenlandHumansMalariaModels, TheoreticalMosquito VectorsPrevalenceRain

Identifiers

PMID34172729
PMCPMC8233338
OpenAlexW3174150645

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.