ArticleTransboundary and emerging diseases2021
Inferring within-flock transmission dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N8 virus in France, 2020.
Article in Transboundary and emerging diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A systematic review of mechanistic models used to study avian influenza virus transmission and control.Veterinary research · 2023Pooled it
- Modeling and control of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry using network disease dynamics.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- The role of ducks in detecting Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in small-scale backyard poultry farms.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- A systematic review of mathematical and machine learning models of Avian Influenza.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2025Review
- Modelling a potential zoonotic spillover event of H5N1 influenza.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Poultry farm density and proximity drive highly pathogenic avian influenza spread.Communications biology · 2025Article
- Surveillance Strategy in Duck Flocks Vaccinated against Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus.Emerging infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Optimizing contact tracing for avian influenza in poultry flocks.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Avian Influenza: Understanding Avian Influenza Transmission via Mallard Migration Data.Interdisciplinary perspectives on infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Association between highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks and weather conditions in Japan.The Journal of veterinary medical science · 2024Article
- Viral shedding and environmental dispersion of two clade 2.3.4.4b H5 high pathogenicity avian influenza viruses in experimentally infected mule ducks: implications for environmental sampling.Veterinary research · 2024Article
- Article
- A review of estimated transmission parameters for the spread of avian influenza viruses.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2022Review
- Phylodynamic analysis of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N8 epidemic in France, 2016-2017.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2022Article
- Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N8) Clade 2.3.4.4b Virus in Dust Samples from Poultry Farms, France, 2021.Emerging infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Avian influenza overview May - September 2021.EFSA journal. European Food Safety Authority · 2022Article
- Avian influenza overview February - May 2021.EFSA journal. European Food Safety Authority · 2021Article
- Inferring within-flock transmission dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N8 virus in France, 2020.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2021Article
- Avian influenza overview December 2020 - February 2021.EFSA journal. European Food Safety Authority · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
11 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Following the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N8) in France in early December 2020, we used duck mortality data from the index farm to investigate within-flock transmission dynamics. A stochastic epidemic model was fitted to the daily mortality data and model parameters were estimated using an approximate Bayesian computation sequential Monte Carlo (ABC-SMC) algorithm. The model predicted that the first bird in the flock was infected 5 days (95% credible interval, CI: 3-6) prior to the day of suspicion and that the transmission rate was 4.1 new infections per day (95% CI: 2.8-5.8). On average, ducks became infectious 4.1 h (95% CI: 0.7-9.1) after infection and remained infectious for 4.3 days (95% CI: 2.8-5.7). The model also predicted that 34% (50% prediction interval: 8%-76%) of birds would already be infectious by the day of suspicion, emphasizing the substantial latent threat this virus could pose to other poultry farms and to neighbouring wild birds. This study illustrates how mechanistic models can help provide rapid relevant insights that contribute to the management of infectious disease outbreaks of farmed animals. These methods can be applied to future outbreaks and the resulting parameter estimates made available to veterinary services within a few hours.
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