ArticleBMC neurology2021
Multiple sclerosis projection in Tehran, Iran using Bayesian structural time series.
Article in BMC neurology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 22 citations in OpenAlex.
- Meta-synthesis of the motherhood-related needs of women with multiple sclerosis.BMC women's health · 2024Pooled it
- Trial
- Aging with multiple sclerosis and associated prevalence, incidence, comorbidities and healthcare utilization patterns in a population based study.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 on hepatitis B in Henan Province and its epidemic trend based on Bayesian structured time series model.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Examining the Telehealth Readiness Among Individuals With Multiple Sclerosis.Journal of patient experience · 2025Article
- Predicting the epidemiological trend of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in China using Bayesian structural time-series model.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Prevalence of Multiple Sclerosis in Vitiligo Patients and Their First-Degree Relatives: Two Diseases with Similarities in Pathogenesis and Treatment.Dermatology practical & conceptual · 2024Article
- Investigation of pregnancy tendency, reproductive characteristics, and disability in women with multiple sclerosis: A secondary data analysis of the national registry in Iran.Current journal of neurology · 2024Article
- Evaluating the impact of COVID-19 outbreak on hepatitis B and forecasting the epidemiological trend in mainland China: a causal analysis.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Alternate dosing of fingolimod in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: A systematic review.Current journal of neurology · 2023Article
- The barriers and facilitators to health-promoting lifestyle behaviors among people with multiple sclerosis during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic: a content analysis study.BMC neurology · 2022Article
- Symptom Interconnectivity in Multiple Sclerosis: A Narrative Review of Potential Underlying Biological Disease Processes.Neurology and therapy · 2022Review
- Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe prevalence of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) has been increasing worldwide and the highest prevalence ratio among Asian countries was reported in Iran. This study aims to estimate the increase in MS occurrence during more than three decades in Tehran and forecast the future condition of the disease using time series approaches for the next ten years.
methodsThe cross-sectional study was conducted from 1999 to 2019 based on records of MS cases from Iranian MS Society (IMSS) registry system. The prevalence was estimated using population data presented by the Statistical Centre of Iran. Through Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) model, we want to predict the prevalence of familial and sporadic MS in the next ten years. .
resultsAmong 22,421 cases with MS, 16,831 (75.1 %) were female and 5589 (24.9 %) were male. Female to male ratio was 3.0:1 and the number of familial MS cases were 2982 (13.3 %) of subjects. Female gender was less responsible for higher rate of MS in familial definition (beta = 0.020) in comparison to sporadic cases (beta = 0.034). Forecasting by BSTS revealed an increase in MS prevalence for the next ten years so that the prevalence rate for total, familial and sporadic MS respectively begins with 189.50 (183.94-195.14), 25.69 (24.97-26.45) and 163.74(159.06-168.57) in 2020 and ends with 220.84 (171.48-266.92), 30.79 (24.16-37.15), and 189.33(146.97-230.19) in 2029.
conclusionsAccording to the findings, MS prevalence increased during three decades and it will increase over the next ten years. Tehran province is one of the regions with highest MS prevalence in Asia. The results of present study indicated that females are at higher risk for MS than males in both sporadic and familial MS.
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