ArticlePLoS pathogens2021
Dating first cases of COVID-19.
Article in PLoS pathogens, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- The effect of different COVID-19 public health restrictions on mobility: A systematic review.PloS one · 2021Pooled it
- Physicians' perspectives on the perceived increase in respiratory infections post-COVID-19 in Pakistan: a qualitative study.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Next-generation sequencing: Driving a paradigm shift from pathogen detection to systems-level analysis.Infectious medicine · 2026Article
- A continuous record of early human stone tool production.Cambridge prisms. Extinction · 2026Article
- AI-driven early infectious disease detection in Dutch primary care using BERT and ERNIE.NPJ digital medicine · 2025Article
- Hybrid analysis with phylogeny and population modeling to estimate the recent founding date of a population: A case study in the origins of COVID-19 illustrates how a branching process approximation can simplify a hybrid analysis.Mathematical biosciences · 2025Article
- Prevalence and Comparison of Superficial-Cutaneous Fungal Infections Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Shiraz, Iran: A Retrospective Study (2018-2021).Indian journal of microbiology · 2024Article
- Using early detection data to estimate the date of emergence of an epidemic outbreak.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Bullet ricochet mark plan-view morphology in concrete: an experimental assessment of five bullet types and two distances using machine learning.Forensic sciences research · 2024Article
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- Inferring species extinction from sighting data.Cambridge prisms. Extinction · 2024Review
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- The Impact of Viral and Bacterial Co-Infections and Home Antibiotic Treatment in SARS-CoV-2 Hospitalized Patients at the Policlinico Tor Vergata Hospital, Rome, Italy.Antibiotics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Mental-health before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in adults with neurodevelopmental disorders.Journal of psychiatric research · 2023Article
- Article
- Efficacy of COVID-19 Public Health Measures in Philadelphia, New York City, Baltimore, and Chicago.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2023Article
- Mpropred: A machine learning (ML) driven Web-App for bioactivity prediction of SARS-CoV-2 main protease (Mpro) antagonists.PloS one · 2023Article
- Effects of environmental conditions on COVID-19 morbidity as an example of multicausality: a multi-city case study in Italy.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Impact of spatiotemporal heterogeneity in COVID-19 disease surveillance on epidemiological parameters and case growth rates.Epidemics · 2022Article
- Validation of the T-Lymphocyte Subset Index (TLSI) as a Score to Predict Mortality in Unvaccinated Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients.Biomedicines · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Questions persist as to the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence is building that its origin as a zoonotic spillover occurred prior to the officially accepted timing of early December, 2019. Here we provide novel methods to date the origin of COVID-19 cases. We show that six countries had exceptionally early cases, unlikely to represent part of their main case series. The model suggests a likely timing of the first case of COVID-19 in China as November 17 (95% CI October 4). Origination dates are discussed for the first five countries outside China and each continent. Results infer that SARS-CoV-2 emerged in China in early October to mid-November, and by January, had spread globally. This suggests an earlier and more rapid timeline of spread. Our study provides new approaches for estimating dates of the arrival of infectious diseases based on small samples that can be applied to many epidemiological situations.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.