Nomogram to Predict Distant Metastasis Probability for Pathological Complete Response Rectal Cancer Patients After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy.

purposeThis study aimed to predict the risks of distant metastasis (DM) of locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients with pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NACRT) and total mesorectal excision (TME), and to find the association between adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) and their survival outcomes. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A total of 242 patients with LARC achieving pCR after NACRT were enrolled in this retrospective study. We developed a nomogram model using logistic regression analyses for predicting risk of DM. The model performance was evaluated by the concordance index and calibration curve. Survival was determined using Kaplan-Meier survival curve.

resultsAge, pre-operative CEA, pre-treatment CEA and distance of tumor to anal verge were identified as significantly associated variables that could be enrolled in the model to predict the risk of DM for pCR patients. The nomogram we created had a bootstrapped-concordance index of 0.731 (95% CI = 0.627 to 0.834) and was well calibrated. The high risk group was more likely to develop DM than low risk group (total score) (95% CI = 1.439 to 6.493,

conclusionThe nomogram model, including age, pre-operative CEA, pre-treatment CEA and distance to anal verge, predicted the probability of DM among LARC patients achieving pCR after NACRT. The effects of ACT were not seen in different subgroups, while closer clinical follow-up may have greater contribution to pCR patients in the first 2 years, especially for patients with relatively higher risk to develop DM. It is suggested that timely active treatment can bring survival benefit for pCR patients developing DM after NACRT.