Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34163125›Full record

ArticleIEEE signal processing letters2021

Quickest Detection of COVID-19 Pandemic Onset.

P Braca, D Gaglione, S Marano, L M Millefiori, P Willett, K Pattipati

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in IEEE signal processing letters, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

P BracaNATO STO CMRE, Research Department, La Spezia, 19126, Italy.
D GaglioneNATO STO CMRE, Research Department, La Spezia, 19126, Italy.
S MaranoDIEM, University of Salerno, Italy.
L M MillefioriNATO STO CMRE, Research Department, La Spezia, 19126, Italy.
P WillettECE Dept., University of Connecticut, Storrs, 06269, USA.
K PattipatiECE Dept., University of Connecticut, Storrs, 06269, USA.

Funding

Shared Services Center NASA 80NSSC19K1076
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

This paper develops an easily-implementable version of Page's CUSUM quickest-detection test, designed to work in certain composite hypothesis scenarios with time-varying data statistics. The decision statistic can be cast in a recursive form and is particularly suited for on-line analysis. By back-testing our approach on publicly-available COVID-19 data we find reliable early warning of infection flare-ups, in fact sufficiently early that the tool may be of use to decision-makers on the timing of restrictive measures that may in the future need to be taken.

Indexed as

COVID-19 pandemicMASTpandemic wavesQuickest detection

Identifiers

PMID34163125
PMCPMC8216249

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.