ArticleScience translational medicine2021
Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England.
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Article in Science translational medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 76 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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76citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
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76 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission: rapid review of evidence from Italy, the United States, the United Kingdom, and China.Frontiers in public health · 2024Pooled it
- Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023Pooled it
- Non-pharmacological measures implemented in the setting of long-term care facilities to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infections and their consequences: a rapid review.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2021Pooled it
- The impact of shielding on COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths during 2020 in England: a transmission modelling evaluation using the OpenSAFELY platform.BMC medicine · 2026Article
- Efficient reporting delay calibration in spatial metapopulation models for reconstructing cross-regional epidemic dynamics.Biosafety and health · 2026Article
- Evolution and spillover dynamics of yellow fever at the forest-urban interface in Brazil.Nature microbiology · 2026Article
- Paediatric infection hospital admissions in England before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.Epidemiology and infection · 2026Article
- Mobility-driven synthetic contact matrices as a scalable solution for real-time pandemic response modeling.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Toward Setting Minimum and Optimal Data to Report for Malaria Molecular Surveillance with Targeted Sequencing: The "What" and "Why".The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2025Article
- Health impact and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 booster vaccination strategies in the early post-Omicron era: a dynamic modelling study.BMJ global health · 2025Article
- Behavioral interventions and respiratory virus incidence in a two-cohort study.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- The need for methodological pluralism in epidemiological modelling.Global epidemiology · 2025Article
- Cost-Effectiveness of Introducing Nuvaxovid to COVID-19 Vaccination in the United Kingdom: A Dynamic Transmission Model.Vaccines · 2025Article
- Review
- Pandemic risk-related behaviour change in England from June 2020 to March 2022: the cross-sectional REACT-1 study among over 2 million people.BMJ public health · 2025Article
- What Lessons can Be Learned From the Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic?International journal of public health · 2025Review
- Recent approaches in computational modelling for controlling pathogen threats.Life science alliance · 2024Review
- Modelling COVID-19 Vaccination in the UK: Impact of the Autumn 2022 and Spring 2023 Booster Campaigns.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2024Article
- The impact of health inequity on spatial variation of COVID-19 transmission in England.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Social determinants of ethnic disparities in SARS-CoV-2 infection: UK Biobank SARS-CoV-2 Serology Study.Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2023Article
16 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
31 authors.
Edward S KnockMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-1135-9652
Lilith K WhittlesMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8913-0391
John A LeesMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-5360-1254
Pablo N Perez-GuzmanMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-5277-5196
Robert VerityMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3902-8567
Richard G FitzJohnMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-8888-3837
Katy A M GaythorpeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3734-9081
Natsuko ImaiMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-4218-9716
Wes HinsleyMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-4597-1746
Lucy C OkellMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-7202-6873
Alicia RoselloDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-0737-5679
Nikolas KantasFaculty of Natural Sciences, Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London SW7 2BX, UK.
Caroline E WaltersMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-1882-0886
Sangeeta BhatiaMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6525-101X
Oliver J WatsonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-2374-0741
Charlie WhittakerMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-5003-2575
Lorenzo CattarinoMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3975-550X
Adhiratha BoonyasiriDepartment of Infectious Disease, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6549-9621
Bimandra A DjaafaraMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-7481-2624
Keith FraserMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8933-9750
Han FuMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8934-7347
Haowei WangMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4753-8783
Xiaoyue XiFaculty of Natural Sciences, Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London SW7 2BX, UK.
Christl A DonnellyMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-0195-2463
Elita JauneikaiteMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-7075-6896
Daniel J LaydonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4270-3321
Peter J WhiteMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-6644-3512
Azra C GhaniMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-0007-4910
Neil M FergusonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK. m.baguelin@imperial.ac.uk neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0002-1154-8093
Anne CoriMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.
Marc BaguelinMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK. m.baguelin@imperial.ac.uk neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0003-3867-1953
Funding
Medical Research Council MC_PC_19012Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1Medical Research Council MR/V038109/1
Abstract
We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional surveillance data for England. Compared with other approaches, our model provides a synthesis of multiple surveillance data streams into a single coherent modeling framework, allowing transmission and severity to be disentangled from features of the surveillance system. Of the control measures implemented, only national lockdown brought the reproduction number (
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COVID-19EpidemicsAgedCommunicable Disease ControlEnglandHumansSARS-CoV-2
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.