ArticleBMC geriatrics2021
Trends in functional disability and cognitive impairment among the older adult in China up to 2060: estimates from a dynamic multi-state population model.
Article in BMC geriatrics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers.
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Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed, 45 citations in OpenAlex.
- Associations of cognitive impairment and physical disability with the risk and reversibility of depressive symptoms in Chinese older adults.BMC geriatrics · 2026Observational
- Association Between Serum Creatinine to Cystatin C Ratio and Activities of Daily Living Disability Trajectories: Evidence From the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study.Geriatrics & gerontology international · 2026Article
- Reference values for gait speed, five-times-sit-to-stand test, balance, and handgrip strength: analysis of data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.GeroScience · 2026Article
- Association between multimorbidity patterns and activities of daily living function among older adults in China: a longitudinal population-based cohort study.BMC geriatrics · 2025Article
- Social isolation and cognitive decline in older adults: a longitudinal study across 24 countries.BMC geriatrics · 2025Article
- Cognitive disability among older adults in Botswana: prevalence, trends, and sociodemographic determinants from cross-sectional data.BMC geriatrics · 2025Article
- Analysis of health information needs of elderly patients with chronic diseases based on Kano Model: a descriptive cross-sectional study.BMC geriatrics · 2025Article
- Interaction effect between sleep duration and dynapenic abdominal obesity for predicting functional disability: A longitudinal study.The journal of nutrition, health & aging · 2025Article
- Association between sleep duration and disability in activities of daily living among Chinese older adults: a nationwide observational study.Frontiers in public health · 2025Observational
- The impact of ADL disability in middle-aged and older adults on the incidence of hip fractures and the mediating role of depression: a longitudinal evidence from CHARLS.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Article
- Associations of a body shape index, weight-adjusted waist index with the activities of daily living impairment in the middle-aged and elderly population: results from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Article
- Burdens of idiopathic developmental intellectual disability attributable to lead exposure from 1990 to 2021 and projection to 2035 in China: findings from the 2021 global burden of disease study.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Impacts of osteosarcopenia on musculoskeletal health, risks of falls and fractures, and activities of daily living among population aged 50 and above: an age- and sex-matched cross-sectional analysis.Aging clinical and experimental research · 2024Article
- Associations between sensory impairment and functional limitations among older Chinese adults: mediating roles of social isolation and cognition.BMC geriatrics · 2024Article
- Functional fitness and physical independence in later years: cut-off values and validation.BMC geriatrics · 2024Article
- Associations between Sarcopenia and trajectories of activities of daily living disability: a nationwide longitudinal study of middle-aged and older adults in China from 2011 to 2018.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2024Article
- Effect of social participation on the trajectories of activities of daily living disability among community-dwelling older adults: a 7-year community-based cohort.Aging clinical and experimental research · 2024Article
- Late-Life Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease and its Association With Physical Disability and Dementia.The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · 2024Article
- Social participation, subjective well-being, and cognitive function as serial mediators between tooth loss and functional limitations in older Chinese adults.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Relationship between social activities and cognitive impairment in Chinese older adults: the mediating effect of depressive symptoms.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundAvailable evidence suggests that cognitive impairment (CI), which leads to deficits in episodic memory, executive functions, visual attention, and language, is associated with difficulties in the capacity to perform activities of daily living. Hence any forecast of the future prevalence of functional disability should account for the likely impact of cognitive impairment on the onset of functional disability. Thus, this research aims to address this gap in literature by projecting the number of older adults in China with functional disability and cognitive impairment while accounting for the impact of cognitive impairment on the onset of functional disability.
methodsWe developed and validated a dynamic multi-state population model which simulates the population of China and tracks the transition of Chinese older adults (65 years and older) from 2010 to 2060, to and from six health states-(i) active older adults without cognitive impairment, (ii) active older adults with cognitive impairment, (iii) older adults with 1 to 2 ADL limitations, (iv) older adults with cognitive impairment and 1 to 2 ADL limitations, (v) older adults with 3 or more ADL limitations, and (vi) older adults with cognitive impairment and 3 or more ADL limitations.
resultsFrom 2015 to 2060, the number of older adults 65 years and older in China is projected to increase, of which the number with impairment (herein referred to as individuals with cognitive impairment and/or activity of daily living limitations) is projected to increase more than fourfold from 17·9 million (17·8-18·0) million in 2015 to 96·2 (95·3-97·1) million by 2060. Among the older adults with impairment, those with ADL limitations only is projected to increase from 3·7 million (3·6-3·7 million) in 2015 to 23·9 million (23·4-24·6 million) by 2060, with an estimated annual increase of 12·2% (12·1-12·3); while that for cognitive impairment only is estimated to increase from 11·4 million (11·3-11·5 million) in 2015 to 47·8 million (47·5-48·2 million) by 2060-this representing an annual growth of 7·07% (7·05-7·09).
conclusionOur findings suggest there will be an increase in demand for intermediate and long-term care services among the older adults with functional disability and cognitive impairment.
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