ArticleWorld journal of surgery2021
Prediction Model for Failure of Nonoperative Management of Uncomplicated Appendicitis in Adults.
Article in World journal of surgery, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 8 citations in OpenAlex.
- Analysis of predictive factors and development of a nomogram for complicated acute appendicitis in adults.BMC surgery · 2026Article
- Predictive model for identification of gangrenous or perforated appendicitis in adults: a multicenter retrospective study.BMC gastroenterology · 2024Article
- Development and validation of a new scoring system to discriminate between uncomplicated and complicated appendicitis.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Development of a scoring model based on objective factors to predict gangrenous/perforated appendicitis.BMC gastroenterology · 2023Article
- Article
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Authors and funding
14 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundPrediction of failure of nonoperative management (NOM) in uncomplicated appendicitis (UA) is difficult. This study aimed to establish a new prediction model for NOM failure in UA.
methodsWe included 141 adults with UA who received NOM as initial treatment. NOM failure was defined as conversion to operation during hospitalization. Independent predictors of NOM failure were identified using logistic regression analysis. A prediction model was established based on these independent predictors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to assess the discrimination and calibration of the model, respectively, and risk stratification using the model was performed.
resultsAmong 141 patients, NOM was successful in 120 and unsuccessful in 21. Male sex, maximal diameter of the appendix, and the presence of fecalith were identified as independent predictors of NOM failure for UA. A prediction model with scores ranging from 0 to 3 was established using the three variables (male sex, maximal diameter of the appendix ≥ 15 mm, and the presence of fecalith). The area under the ROC curve for the new prediction model was 0.778, and the model had good calibration (P = 0.476). A score of 2 yielded a sensitivity of 71.4% and a specificity of 90.8%. Patients were stratified into low (0-1), moderate (2), and high (3) risk categories, which had NOM rates of 5.2%, 47.1%, and 77.8%, respectively.
conclusionsOur prediction model may predict NOM failure in UA with good diagnostic accuracy and help surgeons select appropriate treatments.
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