ArticlePloS one2021
Assessing the short-run effects of lockdown policies on economic activity, with an application to the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile.
Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 12 citations in OpenAlex.
- Institutional quality and pandemic resilience: cross-country evidence on health and economic outcomes during COVID-19.Globalization and health · 2026Article
- Unveiling the paths of COVID-19 in a large city based on public transportation data.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Evolution of COVID-19 municipal solid waste disposal behaviors using epidemiology-based periods defined by World Health Organization guidelines.Sustainable cities and society · 2022Article
- Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review.Systems research and behavioral science · 2022Article
- A snapshot of a pandemic: The interplay between social isolation and COVID-19 dynamics in Brazil.Patterns (New York, N.Y.) · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
This paper develops a methodology for the assessment of the short-run effects of lockdown policies on economic activity. The methodology combines labor market data with simulation of an agent-based model. We apply our methodology to the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile. We recover the model parameters from observed data, taking into account the recurring policy adjustments that characterized the study window. The model is used to build counterfactual scenarios. We estimate an 8 percent output loss in the first 5 months of the pandemic from the policy that was put in place, achieving a 56 percent reduction in the total number of infections. During this period, with an output loss to 10.5 percent of GDP, the infection rate would have decreased 92 percent, significantly delaying the spread of COVID and spike in infections. Our methodology applied to real data provided results that could be valuable in guiding policies in other lockdown situations in times of disaster, pandemics or social upheaval.
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Registered trials
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