ArticleGastric cancer : official journal of the International Gastric Cancer Association and the Japanese Gastric Cancer Association2021
Performance evaluation of four prediction models for risk stratification in gastric cancer screening among a high-risk population in China.
Article in Gastric cancer : official journal of the International Gastric Cancer Association and the Japanese Gastric Cancer Association, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 19 citations in OpenAlex.
- Diagnostic Risk Prediction Models for Upper Gastrointestinal Cancers: A Systematic Review.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2025Pooled it
- Establishment and Validation of a Pathologic Upgrade Prediction Nomogram Model for Gastric Low-Grade Intraepithelial Neoplasia Patients After the Eradication ofCancer control : journal of the Moffitt Cancer CenterTrial
- Five-Year Unified Risk Prediction Model for Gastric and Esophageal Cancer Based on Nationwide Health Check-Up Data in Japan: J-GESS Score.Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology · 2026Article
- Divergent roles of endoscopic Kyoto classification and serological Li's scoring in immediate and long-term gastric cancer risk stratification: a 4-year longitudinal study.BMC gastroenterology · 2026Article
- AI-based large-scale screening of gastric cancer from noncontrast CT imaging.Nature medicine · 2025Observational
- A risk prediction model for gastric cancer based on endoscopic atrophy classification.BMC cancer · 2025Article
- Clinical application of oral contrast-enhanced ultrasound in evaluating the preoperative T staging of gastric cancer.World journal of gastroenterology · 2024Article
- Hotspots and trends of risk factors in gastric cancer: A visualization and bibliometric analysis.World journal of gastrointestinal oncology · 2024Article
- An Investigation into the Characteristics and Distribution Patterns of Diseases Detected via Gastroscopy in Northern Xinjiang, China.Journal of multidisciplinary healthcare · 2024Article
- Development of plasma ghrelin level as a novel marker for gastric mucosal atrophy afterAnnals of medicine · 2022Article
- The management ofFrontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2022Review
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveEarly detection of gastric cancer (GC) is a critical step for decreasing mortality. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of four prediction models for risk stratification in the screening of GC and precancerous lesions among a large, high-risk population in China.
designThis study was a retrospective analysis of data from the Provincial Gastric Cancer Screening Program (Zhejiang, China) spanning the period between October 2016 and April 2019, in which 97,541 individuals from the urban areas of 10 cities in Zhejiang province, China participated in this program. Demographic and clinical characteristics data were collected, and serum pepsinogens I and II, gastrin-17, and anti-H. pylori IgG antibody were detected. Participants were asked to voluntarily undergo gastroscopy. The performance of the ABC method, new ABC method, Tu's prediction model, and Li's prediction model, which stratified participants into low-, medium- and high-risk subgroups, were evaluated using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and Youden index.
resultsAmong the participants, 6005 (3447 males and 2558 females, mean age of 58.35 years), voluntarily underwent gastroscopy. Overall, 72 (1.20%) GC cases (30 early and 42 advanced) and 2006 cases with precancerous lesions (270 atrophic gastritis, 1634 intestinal metaplasia, and 102 dysplasia/intraepithelial neoplasia) were identified. Notably, Li's prediction model achieved the greatest AUC and Youden index values (0.708 and 0.319, respectively) for predicting GC, and exhibited the greatest ability to detect precancerous lesions, especially intestinal metaplasia.
conclusionLi's prediction model performs the best for risk stratification in the screening, detection, and diagnosis of GC and precancerous lesions, whereas the overall performance of the other three models is similar ( www.chictr.org.cn , ChiCTR2100043363).
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