Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34150979›Full record

ArticleSSM - population health2021

Incarceration and mortality in the United States.

Elias Nosrati, Jacob Kang-Brown, Michael Ash, Martin McKee, Michael Marmot, Lawrence P King

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in SSM - population health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
7.9field-weighted citation impact, top 3% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 29 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Observational
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  7. Characterizing Emergency Department Care for Patients With Histories of Incarceration.Journal of the American College of Emergency Physicians open · 2025
    Article
  8. Implementing Reform: Approaches to Alter the Use of Local Jail for People with Behavioral Health Conditions.International journal of offender therapy and comparative criminology · 2024
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.

Elias NosratiUniversity of Oxford, Merton College, Merton Street, OX1 4JD, Oxford, UK.
Jacob Kang-BrownVera Institute of Justice, 233 Broadway, 12th Floor, New York, NY, 10279, USA.
Michael AshUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics, Crotty Hall, 412 North Pleasant Street, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, 01002, USA.
Martin McKeeLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, WC1E 7HT, London, UK.
Michael MarmotInstitute of Health Equity, Department for Epidemiology & Public Health, University College London, 1-19, Torrington Place, WC1E 7HB, London, UK.
Lawrence P KingUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics, Crotty Hall, 412 North Pleasant Street, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, 01002, USA.
University of Massachusetts Amherst · USUniversity College London · GBUniversity of London · GBUniversity of Oxford · GBVera Institute of Justice · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has spotlighted the role of America's overcrowded prisons as vectors of ill health, but robust analyses of the degree to which high rates of incarceration impact population-level health outcomes remain scarce. In this paper, we use county-level panel data from 2927 counties across 43 states between 1983 and 2014 and a novel instrumental variable technique to study the causal effect of penal expansion on age-standardised cause-specific and all-cause mortality rates. We find that higher rates of incarceration have substantively large effects on deaths from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases in the short and medium term, whilst deaths from non-communicable disease and from all causes combined are impacted in the short, medium, and long run. These findings are further corroborated by a between-unit analysis using coarsened exact matching and a simulation-based regression approach to predicting geographically anchored mortality differences.

Indexed as

IncarcerationInstrumental variablesMatchingMortality

Identifiers

PMID34150979
PMCPMC8193150
OpenAlexW3166844729

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.