ArticleRoyal Society open science2021
Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Article in Royal Society open science, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed.
- Importation models for travel-related SARS-CoV-2 cases reported in Newfoundland and Labrador during the COVID-19 pandemic.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Canada's provincial COVID-19 pandemic modelling efforts: A review of mathematical models and their impacts on the responses.Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique · 2024Review
- Is SARS-CoV-2 elimination or mitigation best? Regional and disease characteristics determine the recommended strategy.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Estimating the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in New Zealand border arrivals.BMC global and public health · 2024Article
- A methodology for estimating SARS-CoV-2 importation risk by air travel into Canada between July and November 2021.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Effect of flight connectivity on the introduction and evolution of the COVID-19 outbreak in Canadian provinces and territories.Journal of travel medicine · 2022Article
- The effects of air transport mobility and global connectivity on viral transmission: Lessons learned from Covid-19 and its variants.Transport policy · 2022Article
- Navigating travel in Europe during the pandemic: from mobile apps, certificates and quarantine to traffic-light system.Journal of travel medicine · 2022Article
- The Yukon's experience with COVID-19: Travel restrictions, variants and spread among the unvaccinated.Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada · 2022Article
- Article
- Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Newfoundland and Labrador.Royal Society open science · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
In many jurisdictions, public health authorities have implemented travel restrictions to reduce coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread. Policies that restrict travel within countries have been implemented, but the impact of these restrictions is not well known. On 4 May 2020, Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) implemented travel restrictions such that non-residents required exemptions to enter the province. We fit a stochastic epidemic model to data describing the number of active COVID-19 cases in NL from 14 March to 26 June. We predicted possible outbreaks over nine weeks, with and without the travel restrictions, and for contact rates 40-70% of pre-pandemic levels. Our results suggest that the travel restrictions reduced the mean number of clinical COVID-19 cases in NL by 92%. Furthermore, without the travel restrictions there is a substantial risk of very large outbreaks. Using epidemic modelling, we show how the NL COVID-19 outbreak could have unfolded had the travel restrictions not been implemented. Both physical distancing and travel restrictions affect the local dynamics of the epidemic. Our modelling shows that the travel restrictions are a plausible reason for the few reported COVID-19 cases in NL after 4 May.
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