ArticleNature communications2021
Design of COVID-19 staged alert systems to ensure healthcare capacity with minimal closures.
Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed.
- A Software Platform for Collaborative Infectious Disease Modeling.Nature health · 2026Article
- COVID-19 alert level systems-Lessons learnt for future public health emergencies: A qualitative study.PloS one · 2026Article
- Network-based proactive contact tracing: A pre-emptive, degree-based alerting framework for privacy-preserving COVID-19 apps.PLOS digital health · 2025Article
- Coordinating collaborative infectious disease modeling projects with the hubverse.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Optimization Modeling for Pandemic Vaccine Supply Chain Management: A Review and Future Research Opportunities.Naval research logistics · 2024Article
- Is SARS-CoV-2 elimination or mitigation best? Regional and disease characteristics determine the recommended strategy.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- The impact of spatial connectivity on NPIs effectiveness.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Infectious disease surveillance needs for the United States: lessons from Covid-19.Frontiers in public health · 2024Review
- The disutility of compartmental model forecasts during the COVID-19 pandemic.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2024Article
- Assessing the utility of COVID-19 case reports as a leading indicator for hospitalization forecasting in the United States.Epidemics · 2023Article
- Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Design of effective outpatient sentinel surveillance for COVID-19 decision-making: a modeling study.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Modelling Aotearoa New Zealand's COVID-19 protection framework and the transition away from the elimination strategy.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Optimizing two-dose vaccine resource allocation to combat a pandemic in the context of limited supply: The case of COVID-19.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- A weapon to fight against pervasive Omicron: systematic actions transiting to pre-COVID normal.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Epidemiologic information discovery from open-access COVID-19 case reports via pretrained language model.iScience · 2022Article
- Tracking changes in SARS-CoV-2 transmission with a novel outpatient sentinel surveillance system in Chicago, USA.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Real-time pandemic surveillance using hospital admissions and mobility data.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Article
- Measuring voluntary responses in healthcare utilization during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Taiwan.PloS one · 2022Article
- Modeling robust COVID-19 intensive care unit occupancy thresholds for imposing mitigation to prevent exceeding capacities.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
16 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Community mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19, ranging from healthy hygiene to shelter-in-place orders, exact substantial socioeconomic costs. Judicious implementation and relaxation of restrictions amplify their public health benefits while reducing costs. We derive optimal strategies for toggling between mitigation stages using daily COVID-19 hospital admissions. With public compliance, the policy triggers ensure adequate intensive care unit capacity with high probability while minimizing the duration of strict mitigation measures. In comparison, we show that other sensible COVID-19 staging policies, including France's ICU-based thresholds and a widely adopted indicator for reopening schools and businesses, require overly restrictive measures or trigger strict stages too late to avert catastrophic surges. As proof-of-concept, we describe the optimization and maintenance of the staged alert system that has guided COVID-19 policy in a large US city (Austin, Texas) since May 2020. As cities worldwide face future pandemic waves, our findings provide a robust strategy for tracking COVID-19 hospital admissions as an early indicator of hospital surges and enacting staged measures to ensure integrity of the health system, safety of the health workforce, and public confidence.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.