Health and Economic Outcomes Associated With COVID-19 in Women at High Risk of HIV Infection in Rural Kenya.

Importance: COVID-19 lockdowns may affect economic and health outcomes, but evidence from low- and middle-income countries remains limited. Objective: To assess the economic security, food security, health, and sexual behavior of women at high risk of HIV infection in rural Kenya during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design, Setting, and Participants: This survey study of women enrolled in a randomized trial in a rural county in Kenya combined results from phone interviews, conducted while social distancing measures were in effect between May 13 and June 29, 2020, with longitudinal, in-person surveys administered between September 1, 2019, and March 25, 2020. Enrolled participants were HIV-negative and had 2 or more sexual partners within the past month. Surveys collected information on economic conditions, food security, health status, and sexual behavior. Subgroup analyses compared outcomes by reliance on transactional sex for income and by educational attainment. Data were analyzed between May 2020 and April 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: Self-reported income, employment hours, numbers of sexual partners and transactional sex partners, food security, and COVID-19 prevention behaviors. Results: A total of 1725 women participated, with a mean (SD) age of 29.3 (6.8) years and 1170 (68.0%) reporting sex work as an income source before the COVID-19 pandemic. During the pandemic, participants reported experiencing a 52% decline in mean (SD) weekly income, from $11.25 (13.46) to $5.38 (12.51) (difference, -$5.86; 95% CI, -$6.91 to -$4.82; P < .001). In all, 1385 participants (80.3%) reported difficulty obtaining food in the past month, and 1500 (87.0%) worried about having enough to eat at least once. Reported numbers of sexual partners declined from a mean (SD) total of 1.8 (1.2) partners before COVID-19 to 1.1 (1.0) during (difference, -0.75 partners; 95% CI, -0.84 to -0.67 partners; P < .001), and transactional sex partners declined from 1.0 (1.1) to 0.5 (0.8) (difference, -0.57 partners; 95% CI, -0.64 to -0.50 partners; P < .001). In subgroup analyses, women reliant on transactional sex for income were 18.3% (95% CI, 11.4% to 25.2%) more likely to report being sometimes or often worried that their household would have enough food than women not reliant on transactional sex (P < .001), and their reported decline in employment was 4.6 hours (95% CI, -7.9 to -1.2 hours) greater than women not reliant on transactional sex (P = .008). Conclusions and Relevance: In this survey study, COVID-19 was associated with large reductions in economic security among women at high risk of HIV infection in Kenya. However, shifts in sexual behavior may have temporarily decreased their risk of HIV infection.