Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34135335›Full record

ArticleNature communications2021

Controlling the pandemic during the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination rollout.

João Viana, Christiaan H van Dorp, Ana Nunes, Manuel C Gomes, Michiel van Boven, Mirjam E Kretzschmar, Marc Veldhoen, Ganna Rozhnova

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 67 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
67citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

67 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Optimizing infectious disease mitigation under dynamic conditions.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  4. Article
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  9. Article
  10. Awareness and Safety of COVID-19 Vaccination in Pregnancy.Journal of obstetrics and gynaecology of India · 2024
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
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  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Review
  17. Article
  18. Article
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  20. Article

7 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

João VianaJulius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0001-5760-1745
Christiaan H van DorpTheoretical Biology and Biophysics (T-6), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7504-9947
Ana NunesFaculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal.ORCID 0000-0003-2760-3277
Manuel C GomesFaculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal.ORCID 0000-0002-2679-0974
Michiel van BovenJulius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-0841-2400
Mirjam E KretzschmarJulius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-4394-7697
Marc VeldhoenInstituto de Medicina Molecular João Lobo Antunes, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal.ORCID 0000-0002-1478-9562
Ganna RozhnovaJulius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands. g.rozhnova@umcutrecht.nl.ORCID 0000-0002-6725-7359

Funding

Modeling Viral and T Lymphocyte DynamicsR01OD011095 · OD · TRIAD NATIONAL SECURITY, LLC · PI PERELSON, ALAN S · 2012 to 2024
$5.0M
NIH HHS R01 OD011095
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

There is a consensus that mass vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 will ultimately end the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it is not clear when and which control measures can be relaxed during the rollout of vaccination programmes. We investigate relaxation scenarios using an age-structured transmission model that has been fitted to age-specific seroprevalence data, hospital admissions, and projected vaccination coverage for Portugal. Our analyses suggest that the pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities could lead to new pandemic waves, and that substantial control efforts prove necessary throughout 2021. Using knowledge on control measures introduced in 2020, we anticipate that relaxing measures completely or to the extent as in autumn 2020 could launch a wave starting in April 2021. Additional waves could be prevented altogether if measures are relaxed as in summer 2020 or in a step-wise manner throughout 2021. We discuss at which point the control of COVID-19 would be achieved for each scenario.

Indexed as

Mass VaccinationAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAge FactorsBasic Reproduction NumberCalibrationChildChild, PreschoolCommunicable Disease ControlCOVID-19COVID-19 VaccinesHospitalizationHumansMiddle AgedCOVID-19 Vaccines

Identifiers

PMID34135335
PMCPMC8209021

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.