ArticleVaccine2021
Interpreting vaccine efficacy trial results for infection and transmission.
Article in Vaccine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 50 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
50 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Real-world effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines: a literature review and meta-analysis.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2022Pooled it
- Mathematical modeling of public health policy for international travelers (PHPIT): a case study of the COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Constructing protective mechanism by analysis of vaccine impact based on hybrid model of dynamic DEA and cluster tendency.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Association between influenza vaccine effectiveness and chronic diseases among older adults with dementia.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- A Potential Platform for Future Vaccine Trials Identifies a High Incidence of Symptomatic and Asymptomatic Influenza Infection Among Children Aged 6 to 23 Months in South Africa.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025Article
- COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines: Lessons Learned from the Registrational Trials and Global Vaccination Campaign.Cureus · 2024Review
- Modelling disease mitigation at mass gatherings: A case study of COVID-19 at the 2022 FIFA World Cup.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Controlling the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malawi: Results from a multi-round study.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Estimating SARS-CoV-2 infections and associated changes in COVID-19 severity and fatality.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2023Article
- Vaccine efficacy at a point in time.Biostatistics (Oxford, England) · 2023Article
- Public Health Impacts of Vaccines for COVID-19 and Beyond: Opportunities to Overcome Technical and Regulatory Barriers for Randomized Trials.American journal of public health · 2023Article
- Retrospective, Observational Studies for Estimating Vaccine Effects on the Secondary Attack Rate of SARS-CoV-2.American journal of epidemiology · 2023Observational
- Infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections and reinfections during the Omicron wave.Nature medicine · 2023Article
- Review
- Infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections and reinfections during the Omicron wave.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2022Article
- The importance of sustained compliance with physical distancing during COVID-19 vaccination rollout.Communications medicine · 2022Article
- Measuring Vaccine Efficacy Against Infection and Disease in Clinical Trials: Sources and Magnitude of Bias in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Vaccine Efficacy Estimates.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2022Article
- The Importance of Behavioral and Native Factors on COVID-19 Infection and Severity: Insights from a Preliminary Cross-Sectional Study.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- A Systematic Review of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccine Efficacy and Effectiveness Against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection and Disease.Open forum infectious diseases · 2022Review
- Reconstruction of a large-scale outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Iceland informs vaccination strategies.Clinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
- Update of
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have shown high efficacy of multiple vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 disease (COVID-19), and recent studies have shown the vaccines are also effective against infection. Evidence for the effect of each of these vaccines on ability to transmit the virus is also beginning to emerge. We describe an approach to estimate these vaccines' effects on viral positivity, a prevalence measure which under the reasonable assumption that vaccinated individuals who become infected are no more infectious than unvaccinated individuals forms a lower bound on efficacy against transmission. Specifically, we recommend separate analysis of positive tests triggered by symptoms (usually the primary RCT outcome) and cross-sectional prevalence of positive tests obtained regardless of symptoms. The odds ratio of carriage for vaccine vs. placebo provides an unbiased estimate of vaccine effectiveness against viral positivity, under certain assumptions, and we show through simulations that likely departures from these assumptions will only modestly bias this estimate. Applying this approach to published data from the RCT of the Moderna vaccine, we estimate that one dose of vaccine reduces the potential for transmission by at least 61%, possibly considerably more. We describe how these approaches can be translated into observational studies of vaccine effectiveness.
Indexed as
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.