ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2021
Multi-generational SIR modeling: Determination of parameters, epidemiological forecasting and age-dependent vaccination policies.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Review
- Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Stochastic transmission in epidemiological models.Journal of mathematical biology · 2024Article
- Cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 intervention policies using a mathematical model: an optimal control approach.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Article
- Stochastic SIR model predicts the evolution of COVID-19 epidemics from public health and wastewater data in small and medium-sized municipalities: A one year study.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- From pandemic to a new normal: Strategies to optimise governmental interventions in Indonesia based on an SVEIQHR-type mathematical model.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Nowcasting and forecasting COVID-19 waves: the recursive and stochastic nature of transmission.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
- Article
- Study on the Global Stability for a Generalized SEIR Epidemic Model.Computational intelligence and neuroscience · 2022Article
- Mathematical Analysis of Two Waves of COVID-19 Disease with Impact of Vaccination as Optimal Control.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2022Article
- COVID-19 vaccination strategies depend on the underlying network of social interactions.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Models of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation: a systematic literature search and narrative review.BMC medicine · 2021Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
We use an age-dependent SIR system of equations to model the evolution of the COVID-19. Parameters that measure the amount of interaction in different locations (home, work, school, other) are approximated from in-sample data using a random optimization scheme, and indicate changes in social distancing along the course of the pandemic. That allows the estimation of the time evolution of classical and age-dependent reproduction numbers. With those parameters we predict the disease dynamics, and compare our results with out-of-sample data from the City of Rio de Janeiro. Finally, we provide a numerical investigation regarding age-based vaccination policies, shedding some light on whether is preferable to vaccinate those at most risk (the elderly) or those who spread the disease the most (the youngest). There is no clear upshot, as the results depend on the age of those immunized, contagious parameters, vaccination schedules and efficiency.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.