ArticleJGH open : an open access journal of gastroenterology and hepatology2021
Development and validation of prognostic model to predict mortality among cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding: A retrospective study.
Article in JGH open : an open access journal of gastroenterology and hepatology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- One in four patients with gastrointestinal bleeding develops shock or hemodynamic instability: A systematic review and meta-analysis.World journal of gastroenterology · 2023Pooled it
- Is There a Role for the Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio for Rebleeding and Mortality Risk Prediction in Acute Variceal Bleeding? A Comparative 5-Year Retrospective Study.Diseases (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Impact of timing of endoscopy on clinical outcomes in cirrhotic patients with esophageal variceal bleeding: a monocentric retrospective study from Vietnam.BMC gastroenterology · 2025Article
- [Interpretation of theSichuan da xue xue bao. Yi xue ban = Journal of Sichuan University. Medical science edition · 2025Article
- Acute Variceal Hemorrhage in Germany-A Nationwide Study of 65,357 Hospitalized Cases: Variceal Hemorrhage in Germany.Canadian journal of gastroenterology & hepatology · 2024Article
- Nomogram to Predict the Survival of Chinese Patients with Alcohol-Related Liver Disease.Canadian journal of gastroenterology & hepatology · 2021Article
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3 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND
aimAcute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a serious complication associated with high mortality. The aim of our study was to investigate mortality predictors and to develop a new simplified prognostic model among cirrhotic patients with AVB.
methodsA simplified prognostic model was developed using multiple logistic regression after identifying significant predictors of 6-week mortality.
resultsA total of 713 consecutive patients with AVB were enrolled. The 6-week overall mortality rate was 18%. Multivariate analysis showed that shock, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, high-risk stigmata of esophageal varices on endoscopic finding, and Glasgow Blatchford score were independent predictors of mortality. A new logistic model using these variables was developed. This model (cutoff value ≥ 4) area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) was 0.93 and significantly higher than that of MELD score alone (0.74). Two validation analyses showed that the AUROC of our model was consistently high. The 6-week rebleeding rate was 25.3%. Multivariate analysis showed that MELD score, Glasgow Blatchford score, history of upper GI bleeding, shock, and alcohol use were independent predictors of rebleeding.
conclusionOur new simplified model accurately and consistently predicted 6-week mortality among patients with AVB using objective variables measured at admission. Patients with higher MELD scores should be closely monitored due to the higher probability of 6-week rebleeding.
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