Community concern and government response: Identifying socio-economic and demographic predictors of oil and gas complaints and drinking water impairments in Pennsylvania.

Oil and gas development has led to environmental hazards and community concerns, particularly in relation to water supply issues. Filing complaints with state agencies enables citizens to register concerns and seek investigations. We evaluated associations between county-level socio-economic and demographic factors, oil and gas drilling, and three outcomes in Pennsylvania between 2004-2016: number of oil and gas complaints filed, and both the number and proportion of state investigations of water supply complaints yielding a confirmed water supply impairment (i.e., "positive determination"). We used hierarchical Bayesian Poisson and binomial regression analyses. From 2004-2016, 9,404 oil and gas-related complaints were filed, of which 4,099 were water supply complaints. Of those, 3,906 received investigations, and 215 yielded positive determinations. We observed a 47% increase in complaints filed per $10,000 increase in annual median household income (MHI) (Rate Ratio [RR]: 1.47, 95% credible interval [CI]: 1.09-1.96) and an 18% increase per 1% increase in educational attainment (RR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.11-1.26). While the number of complaints filed did not vary by race/ethnicity, the odds of a complaint yielding a positive determination were 0.81 times lower in counties with a higher proportion of marginalized populations (Odds Ratio [OR]: 0.81 per 1% increase in percent Black, Asian, and Native American populations combined, 95% CI: 0.64-0.99). The odds of positive determinations were also lower in areas with higher income (OR per $10,000 increase in MHI: 0.35, 95% CI: 0.09-0.96). Our results suggest these relationships are complex and may indicate potential environmental and procedural inequities, warranting further investigation.