ArticleJournal of the economics of ageing2021
The economic burden of COVID-19 in the United States: Estimates and projections under an infection-based herd immunity approach.
Article in Journal of the economics of ageing, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 43 citations in OpenAlex.
- Outcomes of patients with HIV and COVID-19 co-infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis.AIDS research and therapy · 2022Pooled it
- Economic risk framing increases intention to vaccinate among Republican COVID-19 vaccine refusers.Social science & medicine (1982) · 2023Trial
- The global macroeconomic burden of diabetes mellitus.Nature medicine · 2026Article
- Economic burden of long COVID: macroeconomic, cost-of-illness and microeconomic impacts.NPJ primary care respiratory medicine · 2025Review
- Estimation and prediction on the economic burden of schistosomiasis in 25 endemic countries.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2025Article
- Asymptomatic testing people for SARS-CoV-2 in healthcare facilities: A systematic review.Journal of public health in Africa · 2025Review
- The present value of human life losses associated with COVID-19 and likely productivity losses averted through COVID-19 vaccination in Madagascar.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Assessing COVID-19 Vulnerability Among HIV-positive Men Who Have Sex With Men in Korea: The Role of Vaccination and Sexual Behaviors.Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi · 2024Article
- The economic case for scaling up health research and development: Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Out-of-pocket expenditures in hospitalized COVID-19 patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Journal of education and health promotion · 2024Review
- Estimation of non-health gross domestic product (NHGDP) loss due to COVID-19 deaths in West Bengal, India.BMJ open · 2023Article
- Estimating the economic burden of long-Covid: the additive cost of healthcare utilisation among COVID-19 recoverees in Israel.BMJ global health · 2023Article
- COVID-19 as a trigger of Guillain-Barré syndrome: A review of the molecular mechanism.Immunity, inflammation and disease · 2023Review
- The Management of Obstructive Sleep Apnea Patients during the COVID-19 Pandemic as a Public Health Problem-Interactions with Sleep Efficacy and Mental Health.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- State of the Oral Implantology Practice in Spain during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Sectional Survey.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Observational
- Psychological Status of Men Who Have Sex with Men during COVID-19: An Online Cross-Sectional Study in Western China.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Population-weighted exposure to green spaces tied to lower COVID-19 mortality rates: A nationwide dose-response study in the USA.The Science of the total environment · 2022Article
- The value of lost output and cost of illness of noncommunicable diseases in the Pacific.Health policy OPEN · 2022Article
- Chimeric forecasting: combining probabilistic predictions from computational models and human judgment.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Factors Predicting Progression to Severe COVID-19: A Competing Risk Survival Analysis of 1753 Patients in Community Isolation in Wuhan, China.Engineering (Beijing, China) · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 4 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesTo assess the economic burden of COVID-19 that would arise absent behavioral or policy responses under the herd immunity approach in the United States and compare it to the total burden that also accounts for estimates of the value of lives lost.
methodsWe use the trajectories of age-specific human and physical capital in the production process to calculate output changes based on a human capital-augmented production function. We also calculate the total burden that results when including the value of lives lost as calculated from mortality rates of COVID-19 and estimates for the value of a statistical life in the United States based on studies assessing individual's willingness to pay to avoid risks.
resultsOur results indicate that the GDP loss associated with unmitigated COVID-19 would amount to a cumulative US$1.4 trillion by 2030 assuming that 60 percent of the population is infected over three years. This is equivalent to around 7.7 percent of GDP in 2019 (in constant 2010 US$) or an average tax on yearly output of 0.6 percent. After applying the value of a statistical life to account for the value of lives lost, our analyses show that the total burden can mount to between US$17 and 94 trillion over the next decade, which is equivalent to an annual tax burden between 8 and 43 percent.
conclusionOur results show that the United States would incur a sizeable burden if it adopted a non-interventionist herd immunity approach.
fundingResearch reported in this paper was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (Project INV-006261), and the Sino-German Center for Research Promotion (Project C-0048), which is funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC). Preparation of this article was also supported by the Value of Vaccination Research Network (VoVRN) through a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (Grant OPP1158136). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors.
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