ArticleObesity science & practice2021
A novel decision model to predict the impact of weight management interventions: The Core Obesity Model.
Article in Obesity science & practice, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 18 citations in OpenAlex.
- External Validation of the MicroSimulation Core Obesity Model (MS-COM) to Predict Cardiovascular Outcomes, Mortality and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Incidence and Assess Cost Effectiveness.PharmacoEconomics · 2026Pooled it
- Pharmacoeconomic evaluation of anti-obesity drugs for chronic weight management: a systematic review of literature.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2023Pooled it
- Development of Cardiovascular Risk Equations in People with Overweight or Obesity and Established Cardiovascular Disease Without Diabetes Based on the SELECT Trial.PharmacoEconomics · 2026Trial
- Carbon Emission Impact of Semaglutide in People with Obesity in the UK Using a Disease Modelling Approach.PharmacoEconomics · 2026Article
- Once-Weekly Subcutaneous Semaglutide 2.4 mg Injection is Cost-Effective for Weight Management in Spain.Advances in therapy · 2026Article
- Long-Term Cost and Health Impact of a Digital Obesity Intervention in Germany: Economic Modeling Study.JMIR formative research · 2026Article
- External Validation of SELECT Trial-Derived Cardiovascular Risk Equations in a UK Population with Overweight or Obesity and Established Cardiovascular Disease Without Diabetes.PharmacoEconomics · 2026Article
- Cost-Effectiveness of Semaglutide 2.4 mg for Obesity Disease Management in Japan: A Lifetime Economic Modeling Study Incorporating Retreatment Scenarios.Journal of health economics and outcomes research · 2026Article
- Changes in Body Weight Perception, Lifestyle Habits, and Health Awareness in Croatia: A Comparative Population Survey (2022-2024).Nutrients · 2025Article
- Critical Analysis of Markov Modeling for the Economic Evaluation of Obesity Interventions: A Systematic Review.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2025Review
- Assessing the health and economic burden of obesity-related complications in East-Asian populations: implementation of risk equations in the Core Obesity Model for Japan and model validation.BMJ public health · 2024Article
- Cost-effectiveness of weight-management pharmacotherapies in Canada: a societal perspective.International journal of obesity (2005) · 2024Article
- Cost-effectiveness of semaglutide 2.4 mg in chronic weight management in Portugal.Diabetology & metabolic syndrome · 2024Article
- Once-Weekly Subcutaneous Semaglutide 2.4 mg Injection is Cost-Effective for Weight Management in the United Kingdom.Advances in therapy · 2023Article
- How Unawareness of Weight Excess Can Increase Cardiovascular Risk?Journal of clinical medicine · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
aimsModels are needed to quantify the economic implications of obesity in relation to health outcomes and health-related quality of life. This report presents the structure of the Core Obesity Model (COM) and compare its predictions with the UK clinical practice data. MATERIALS AND
methodsThe COM is a Markov, closed-cohort model, which expands on earlier obesity models by including prediabetes as a risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2D), and sleep apnea and cancer as health outcomes. Selected outcomes predicted by the COM were compared with observed event rates from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink-Hospital Episode Statistics (CPRD-HES) study. The importance of baseline prediabetes prevalence, a factor not taken into account in previous economic models of obesity, was tested in a scenario analysis using data from the 2011 Health Survey of England.
resultsCardiovascular (CV) event rates predicted by the COM were well matched with those in the CPRD-HES study (7.8-8.5 per 1000 patient-years across BMI groups) in both base case and scenario analyses (8.0-9.4 and 8.6-9.9, respectively). Rates of T2D were underpredicted in the base case (1.0-7.6 vs. 2.1-22.7) but increased to match those observed in CPRD-HES for some BMI groups when a prospectively collected prediabetes prevalence was used (2.7-13.1). Mortality rates in the CPRD-HES were consistently higher than the COM predictions, especially in higher BMI groups.
conclusionsThe COM predicts the occurrence of CV events and T2D with a good degree of accuracy, particularly when prediabetes is included in the model, indicating the importance of considering this risk factor in economic models of obesity.
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