ArticleEuropean heart journal2021
SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe.
Article in European heart journal, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 9 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 887 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Multimodal Vascular Phenotyping and Target-Organ Damage Using Vascular Imaging, Glyco-Oxidative Biomarkers, and Photoplethysmography in Adults at Increased Cardiovascular Risk: The GlycOxiTOD Observational Registry
Efficacy Of Upadacitinib In Psoriatic Arthritis And Comparison To Rheumatoid Arthritis. OPTimising IMAging For The Use In The Follow-Up Of Arthritis: The OPTIMA Study
Prevalence of Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic (CKM) Syndrome and Its Relationship With SCORE-2 Risk Score and Body Roundness Index (BRI): A Study From Gaziantep, Turkey
Polygenic Risk Score to Optimize Primary Prevention in Intermediate Risk Population (PERSONAL)
Akershus Cardiac Examination (ACE) 5 Study: Pragmatic Randomized Controlled Trial of Lung Cancer Screening Plus Program to Improve Cardiovascular Risk Profile and Health in Individuals With Heavy Smoking History
Impact of Combined cARdio-pUlmonary aSsessment on COPD Clinical Management: the ICARUS Study
The Natural History Of Calcium Pyrophosphate Deposition And Gout: An Observational Clinical And Imaging Study - The Orienting Study
Triglyceride-rich LIPoproteins and INflammatory Cytokines After Oral FAT Loading as Potential Early Biomarkers of the Risk of Progression Towards DIABETES and Development of Complications. LIPINFAT Diabetes Study.
CArdiovascular Risk Assessment Via Multimodal Data Analysis Enabling Personalised Prevention Strategies Targeting MEnopausaL Women - Observational Study
Who cites it
887 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Candidate Biomarkers Linking Periodontitis with Atherosclerotic and Related Cardiovascular Phenotypes: A Systematic Review Focused on Sex-Specific Evidence.International journal of molecular sciences · 2026Pooled it
- Prevalence of high blood pressure and hypertension among children and adolescents in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Archives of disease in childhood · 2026Pooled it
- Risk factors for small vessel disease in adults with atherosclerosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC cardiovascular disorders · 2026Pooled it
- Discriminative performance of externally validated dementia risk prediction models: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC medicine · 2026Pooled it
- Lipid monitoring using non-invasive measurement technologies and machine learning: a systematic review.Archives of gynecology and obstetrics · 2026Pooled it
- A validated, modifiable proteomic score from the EXSCEL trial predicts cardiovascular events in diabetes.JCI insight · 2026Trial
- Inclisiran-based treatment strategy in hypercholesterolaemia: the VICTORION-difference trial.European heart journal · 2026Trial
- APOSCREEN-1 - a prospective, single-arm clinical trial for the implementation of a pharmacy-based screening for cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic risk factors in Schleswig-Holstein.BMC nephrology · 2026Trial
- Associations between lifestyle and initiation of cardiovascular preventive medicines in 60-year-olds at low to moderate cardiovascular risk level - a prospective cohort study based on the VIPVIZA-trial.BMC cardiovascular disorders · 2026Trial
- Interactive Digital Visualization Counseling for Lifestyle Change in Patients at Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases: Randomized Controlled Trial.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2026Trial
- Article
- Is chronic venous disease a marker of systemic cardiovascular risk? A systematic review.American heart journal plus : cardiology research and practice · 2026Review
- Sex differences in single and combined cardiovascular medication use.American heart journal plus : cardiology research and practice · 2026Article
- Polygenic risk score for early identification of coronary artery disease in a real-world clinical setting within the Latvian patient population.American heart journal plus : cardiology research and practice · 2026Article
- The PREVENT Risk Equations and Cardiovascular Prevention in East Asia.Journal of atherosclerosis and thrombosis · 2026Review
- 2025 AHA/ACC/AANP/AAPA/ABC/ACCP/ACPM/AGS/AMA/ASPC/NMA/PCNA/SGIM guideline for the prevention, detection, evaluation and management of high blood pressure in adults: a commentary from the European Renal Best Practice (ERBP).Nephrology, dialysis, transplantation : official publication of the European Dialysis and Transplant Association - European Renal Association · 2026Article
- Prediction of Prevalent Cardiovascular Disease Using Social, Environmental, and Behavioral Factors: A Vital Conditions Framework Approach.Chronic diseases and translational medicine · 2026Article
- Interleukin-22 reflects adverse cardiometabolic features in SLE.Lupus science & medicine · 2026Article
- A Cardiovascular Care Pathway Supported by Remote Patient Management in Dutch Primary Care: Cost-Effectiveness, Budget Impact, and Workload Analysis.JMIR mHealth and uHealth · 2026Article
- Unsupervised Descriptive Phenotyping of Cardiometabolic Laboratory Patterns from a Routine Five-Analyte Panel: Stability, Transportability and a Rule-Based Laboratory Interpretation Layer.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
827 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
- Commented on by
- Commented on by
- Commented on by
Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
Abstract
aimsThe aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe. METHODS AND
resultsWe derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low-risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries.
conclusionSCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.