Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34118730›Full record

ArticleJournal of infection and public health2021

COVID-19 prevalence forecasting using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN): Case of Turkey.

Gülhan Toğa, Berrin Atalay, M Duran Toksari

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of infection and public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed.

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  7. Comparison of ARIMA, ETS, NNAR, TBATS and hybrid models to forecast the second wave of COVID-19 hospitalizations in Italy.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2022
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Gülhan ToğaErciyes University, Engineering Faculty, Industrial Engineering Department, Kayseri, Turkey.
Berrin AtalayErciyes University, Engineering Faculty, Industrial Engineering Department, Kayseri, Turkey.
M Duran ToksariErciyes University, Engineering Faculty, Industrial Engineering Department, Kayseri, Turkey. Electronic address: dtoksari@erciyes.edu.tr.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

A local outbreak of unknown pneumonia was detected in Wuhan (Hubei, China) in December 2019. It is determined to be caused by a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) and called COVID-19 by scientists. The outbreak has since spread all over the world with a total of 120,815,512 cases and 2,673,308 deaths as of 16 March 2021. The health systems in the world collapsed in many countries due to the pandemic and many countries were negatively affected in the social life. In such situations, it is very important to predict the load that will occur in the health system of a country. In this study, the COVID-19 prevalence of Turkey is inspected. The infected cases, the number of deaths, and the recovered cases are predicted with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) in Turkey. The techniques are compared in terms of correlation coefficient and mean square error (MSE). The results showed that the used techniques used are very successful in the estimation of prevalence in Turkey.

Indexed as

COVID-19ChinaHumansModels, StatisticalNeural Networks, ComputerPrevalenceSARS-CoV-2TurkeyANNARIMACOVID-19ForecastingTurkey

Identifiers

PMID34118730
PMCPMC8098037

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.