ArticlePreventing chronic disease2021
Cancer Incidence Projections in the United States Between 2015 and 2050.
Article in Preventing chronic disease, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 81 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
81 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 142 citations in OpenAlex.
- Evaluation and forecasting methods to estimate number of patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma: a systematic literature review.Population health metrics · 2025Pooled it
- The associations of muscle-strengthening exercise with recurrence and mortality among breast cancer survivors: a systematic review.The international journal of behavioral nutrition and physical activity · 2024Pooled it
- Sparse canonical correlation to identify breast cancer related genes regulated by copy number aberrations.PloS one · 2022Pooled it
- Family caregivers of those with cancer: quality of life outcomes from a sequential multiple assignment randomized trial.Supportive care in cancer : official journal of the Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer · 2022Trial
- Leveraging Artificial Intelligence to Monitor Patients With Prostate Cancer in a Retrospective Cohort of Radiation Oncology Clinic Patients.Clinical journal of oncology nursing · 2026Article
- Targeting epigenetic regulators induces transcription-replication conflicts to overcome ATR inhibitor resistance.Nucleic acids research · 2026Article
- Changes in Cost of Guideline-Concordant Cancer Treatment: Observations and Implications.JCO oncology practice · 2026Article
- Comparing Trends in Telemedicine Use and Geographic Disparities in Utilization Among Patients With Cancer in the United States.JCO oncology practice · 2026Article
- Endometrioid Intraepithelial Neoplasia in the Secretory Phase: Morphologic and Biomarker Diagnostic Features in a Common, Overlooked Setting.The American journal of surgical pathology · 2026Article
- Surgical Intervention in Very Elderly Patients with Spinal Ependymoma: A National Cancer Database Analysis.Cancers · 2026Article
- c-FLIP as a master regulator of immune homeostasis and disease mechanisms.Cell death & disease · 2026Review
- Age-Based Left-Digit Bias in the Treatment of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma.Journal of gastrointestinal cancer · 2026Article
- Article
- Trends and future projections of cancer prevalence in patients with cardiovascular admissions.European heart journal open · 2026Article
- Cancer prevalence in the United States: trends and sociodemographic disparities based on national health interview survey data (2019-2023).Frontiers in oncology · 2026Article
- Drosophila melanogaster: an old and future ally to radiobiology.Journal of radiation research · 2025Review
- Chronic Oxaliplatin Treatment Induces CIPN in Mice via Activation of the TXNIP Pathway.Molecular neurobiology · 2025Article
- Secret elixirs of nature: extract type shapes the phytochemical-mediated synthesis and anticancer potential of ZnO and FeScientific reports · 2025Article
- Pan-cancer analysis of INHBA indicates its potential prognostic value and correlation with HNSC and LIHC.Discover oncology · 2025Article
- Unveiling trends in urinary tract cancer mortality among older adults in the United States (1999-2022): a CDC WONDER perspective.International urology and nephrology · 2025Article
21 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionThe number of adults entering the age groups at greatest risk for being diagnosed with cancer is increasing. Projecting cancer incidence can help the cancer control community plan and evaluate prevention strategies aimed at reducing the growing number of cancer cases.
methodsWe used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program and the US Census Bureau to estimate average, annual, age-standardized cancer incidence rates and case counts (for all sites combined and top 22 invasive cancers) in the US for 2015 and to project cancer rates and counts to 2050. We used age, period, and cohort models to inform projections.
resultsBetween 2015 and 2050, we predict the overall age-standardized incidence rate (proxy for population risk for being diagnosed with cancer) to stabilize in women (1%) and decrease in men (-9%). Cancers with the largest change in risk include a 34% reduction for lung and bronchus and a 32% increase for corpus uterine (32%). Because of the growth and aging of the US population, we predict that the annual number of cancer cases will increase 49%, from 1,534,500 in 2015 to 2,286,300 in 2050, with the largest percentage increase among adults aged ≥75 years. Cancers with the largest projected absolute increase include female breast, colon and rectum, and prostate. DISCUSSION: By 2050, we predict the total number of incident cases to increase by almost 50% as a result of the growth and aging of the US population. A greater emphasis on cancer risk reduction is needed to counter these trends.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.