Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34114252›Full record

ArticleStatistics in medicine2021

Estimating heterogeneous survival treatment effect in observational data using machine learning.

Liangyuan Hu, Jiayi Ji, Fan Li

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Statistics in medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
35citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

35 citing papers in PubMed.

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  16. Machine Learning Methods to Estimate Individualized Treatment Effects for Use in Health Technology Assessment.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2024
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Liangyuan HuDepartment of Population Health Science and Policy, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4067-892X
Jiayi JiDepartment of Population Health Science and Policy, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.
Fan LiDepartment of Biostatistics, Yale University School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6183-1893

Funding

THE TISCH CANCER INSTITUTE - CANCER CENTER SUPPORT GRANTP30CA196521 · NCI · ICAHN SCHOOL OF MEDICINE AT MOUNT SINAI · PI Ramon E Parsons · 2015 to 2026
$35.4M
Bayesian machine learning for causal inference with incomplete longitudinal covariates and censored survival outcomesR01HL159077 · NHLBI · RUTGERS BIOMEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES · PI Liangyuan Hu · 2022 to 2026
$3.3M
Flexible Bayesian approaches to causal inference with multilevel survival data and multiple treatmentsR21CA245855 · NCI · RBHS-SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI HU, LIANGYUAN · 2020 to 2020
$459k
NCI NIH HHS P30 CA196521NCI NIH HHS R21 CA245855NCI NIH HHS R21CA245855NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL159077
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effect in observational data have largely focused on continuous or binary outcomes, and have been relatively less vetted with survival outcomes. Using flexible machine learning methods in the counterfactual framework is a promising approach to address challenges due to complex individual characteristics, to which treatments need to be tailored. To evaluate the operating characteristics of recent survival machine learning methods for the estimation of treatment effect heterogeneity and inform better practice, we carry out a comprehensive simulation study presenting a wide range of settings describing confounded heterogeneous survival treatment effects and varying degrees of covariate overlap. Our results suggest that the nonparametric Bayesian Additive Regression Trees within the framework of accelerated failure time model (AFT-BART-NP) consistently yields the best performance, in terms of bias, precision, and expected regret. Moreover, the credible interval estimators from AFT-BART-NP provide close to nominal frequentist coverage for the individual survival treatment effect when the covariate overlap is at least moderate. Including a nonparametrically estimated propensity score as an additional fixed covariate in the AFT-BART-NP model formulation can further improve its efficiency and frequentist coverage. Finally, we demonstrate the application of flexible causal machine learning estimators through a comprehensive case study examining the heterogeneous survival effects of two radiotherapy approaches for localized high-risk prostate cancer.

Indexed as

Machine LearningModels, StatisticalBayes TheoremCausalityComputer SimulationHumansMaleBayesian additive regression treescausal inferencemachine learningobservational studiessurvival treatment effect heterogeneity

Identifiers

PMID34114252
PMCPMC9827499

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.