Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34112086›Full record

ArticleBMC bioinformatics2021

Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 using LSTM network.

Shiu Kumar, Ronesh Sharma, Tatsuhiko Tsunoda, Thirumananseri Kumarevel, Alok Sharma

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC bioinformatics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
2.5field-weighted citation impact, top 10% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 32 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.

Shiu KumarSchool of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Fiji National University, Suva, Fiji. shiu748@gmail.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6145-1065
Ronesh SharmaSchool of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Fiji National University, Suva, Fiji.
Tatsuhiko Tsunoda *Laboratory for Medical Science Mathematics, Department of Biological Sciences, Graduate School of Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 113-0033, Japan.
Thirumananseri Kumarevel *Laboratory for Transcription Structural Biology, RIKEN Center for Biosystems Dynamics Research, 1-7-22 Suehiro, Tsurumi-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 230-0045, Japan.
Alok Sharma *Laboratory for Medical Science Mathematics, RIKEN Center for Integrative Medical Sciences, Yokohama, 230-0045, Japan.
Fiji National University · FJGriffith University · AURIKEN Center for Biosystems Dynamics Research · JPTokyo Medical and Dental University · JP

Funding

JSPS KAKENHI JP17H06307, JP17H06299, and JP20H03240JST CREST JPMJCR 1412Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan JP16H06299
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and within a few months, it has become a global pandemic. This forced many affected countries to take stringent measures such as complete lockdown, shutting down businesses and trade, as well as travel restrictions, which has had a tremendous economic impact. Therefore, having knowledge and foresight about how a country might be able to contain the spread of COVID-19 will be of paramount importance to the government, policy makers, business partners and entrepreneurs. To help social and administrative decision making, a model that will be able to forecast when a country might be able to contain the spread of COVID-19 is needed.

resultsThe results obtained using our long short-term memory (LSTM) network-based model are promising as we validate our prediction model using New Zealand's data since they have been able to contain the spread of COVID-19 and bring the daily new cases tally to zero. Our proposed forecasting model was able to correctly predict the dates within which New Zealand was able to contain the spread of COVID-19. Similarly, the proposed model has been used to forecast the dates when other countries would be able to contain the spread of COVID-19.

conclusionThe forecasted dates are only a prediction based on the existing situation. However, these forecasted dates can be used to guide actions and make informed decisions that will be practically beneficial in influencing the real future. The current forecasting trend shows that more stringent actions/restrictions need to be implemented for most of the countries as the forecasting model shows they will take over three months before they can possibly contain the spread of COVID-19.

Indexed as

COVID-19Communicable Disease ControlForecastingHumansNew ZealandPandemicsSARS-CoV-2COVID-19End date predictionLong short-term memory (LSTM)Pandemic

Identifiers

PMID34112086
PMCPMC8190741
OpenAlexW3170336408

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.