ArticleSleep2021
Prediction of shiftworker alertness, sleep, and circadian phase using a model of arousal dynamics constrained by shift schedules and light exposure.
Article in Sleep, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 31 citations in OpenAlex.
- Article
- Data-Driven Scheduling Strategies to Minimize Fatigue in Rotating Night-Shift Nurses.Journal of nursing management · 2026Observational
- A bistable stochastic model quantifies performance degradation during sleep deprivation.Sleep · 2025Article
- Article
- Article
- Pilot feasibility testing of biomathematical model recommendations for personalising sleep timing in shift workers.Journal of sleep research · 2025Article
- Understanding sleep health challenges of defence shift workers to design a digital, sleep and circadian management tool.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Impact of Varying Sleep Pressure on Daytime Sleep Propensity in Healthy Young and Older Adults.Clocks & sleep · 2025Article
- Accurately predicting mood episodes in mood disorder patients using wearable sleep and circadian rhythm features.NPJ digital medicine · 2024Article
- Lighting the path forward: the value of sleep- and circadian-informed lighting interventions in shift work.Sleep · 2024Article
- Article
- Article
- SleepSync: Early Testing of a Personalised Sleep-Wake Management Smartphone Application for Improving Sleep and Cognitive Fitness in Defence Shift Workers.Clocks & sleep · 2024Article
- Associations between light exposure and sleep timing and sleepiness while awake in a sample of UK adults in everyday life.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Cortical waste clearance in normal and restricted sleep with potential runaway tau buildup in Alzheimer's disease.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Working around the Clock: Is a Person's Endogenous Circadian Timing for Optimal Neurobehavioral Functioning Inherently Task-Dependent?Clocks & sleep · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
STUDY
objectivesThe study aimed to, for the first time, (1) compare sleep, circadian phase, and alertness of intensive care unit (ICU) nurses working rotating shifts with those predicted by a model of arousal dynamics; and (2) investigate how different environmental constraints affect predictions and agreement with data.
methodsThe model was used to simulate individual sleep-wake cycles, urinary 6-sulphatoxymelatonin (aMT6s) profiles, subjective sleepiness on the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS), and performance on a Psychomotor Vigilance Task (PVT) of 21 ICU nurses working day, evening, and night shifts. Combinations of individual shift schedules, forced wake time before/after work and lighting, were used as inputs to the model. Predictions were compared to empirical data. Simulations with self-reported sleep as an input were performed for comparison.
resultsAll input constraints produced similar prediction for KSS, with 56%-60% of KSS scores predicted within ±1 on a day and 48%-52% on a night shift. Accurate prediction of an individual's circadian phase required individualized light input. Combinations including light information predicted aMT6s acrophase within ±1 h of the study data for 65% and 35%-47% of nurses on diurnal and nocturnal schedules. Minute-by-minute sleep-wake state overlap between the model and the data was between 81 ± 6% and 87 ± 5% depending on choice of input constraint.
conclusionsThe use of individualized environmental constraints in the model of arousal dynamics allowed for accurate prediction of alertness, circadian phase, and sleep for more than half of the nurses. Individual differences in physiological parameters will need to be accounted for in the future to further improve predictions.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.