ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2021
The impact of COVID-19 lockdown on dengue transmission in Sri Lanka; A natural experiment for understanding the influence of human mobility.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 56 citations in OpenAlex.
- Effects of COVID-19 Non-Pharmacological Interventions on Dengue Infection: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2022Pooled it
- Addressing the COVID-19 pandemic challenges for operational adaptations of a cluster randomized controlled trial on dengue vector control in Malaysia.BMC public health · 2022Trial
- Mobility and non-household environments: Understanding dengue transmission patterns in urban contexts.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal patterns and forecasted trends of dengue in Saudi Arabia: a national surveillance study, 2012-2024.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Dengue-SARS-CoV-2 interactions: immune crosstalk, variant emergence, and clinical outcomes.Frontiers in immunology · 2026Review
- Article
- Dengue Epidemiology in 7 Southeast Asian Countries: 24-Year, Retrospective, Multicountry Ecological Study.Interactive journal of medical research · 2025Article
- An explainable covariate compartmental model for predicting the spatio-temporal patterns of dengue in Sri Lanka.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic identification of dengue hotspots and exploration of population and environmental determinants of dengue in Quezon City, Philippines.Tropical medicine and health · 2025Article
- Mobility and non-household environments: understanding dengue transmission patterns in urban contexts.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Epidemiological Changes in Acute Febrile Diseases after the COVID-19 Pandemic in Thailand.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2025Article
- Temporal shifts in dengue epidemic in Guangdong Province before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a Bayesian model study from 2012 to 2022.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Clinical Epidemiology of Dengue and COVID-19 Co-infection Among the Residents in Dhaka, Bangladesh, 2021-2023: A Cross-sectional Study.Open forum infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Article
- Human mobility under disasters: a systematic review and framework for equitable and resilient mobility governance.npj natural hazards · 2025Article
- Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on dengue in Brazil: Interrupted time series analysis of changes in surveillance and transmission.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- The impact of COVID-19 mobility restrictions on dengue transmission in urban areas.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- Sri Lanka's COVID-19 response and maintaining health services: implications for future pandemics.BMJ global health · 2024Article
- Assessing the Burden of Dengue during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Mexico.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Article
- Effects of different levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions on hand, foot and mouth disease in Guangzhou, China.BMC public health · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundDengue is one of the major public health problems in Sri Lanka. Its outbreak pattern depends on a multitude of drivers, including human mobility. Here we evaluate the impact of COVID-19 related mobility restriction (lockdown) on the risk of dengue in Sri Lanka. METHODOLOGY: Two-stage hierarchical models were fitted using an interrupted time-series design based on the notified dengue cases, January 2015 to July 2020. In the first stage model, the district level impact was estimated using quasi-Poisson regression models while accounting for temporal trends. Estimates were pooled at zonal and national levels in the second stage model using meta-analysis. The influence of the extended period of school closure on dengue in children in the western province was compared to adults.
findingsStatistically significant and homogeneous reduction of dengue risk was observed at all levels during the lockdown. Overall an 88% reduction in risk (RR 0.12; 95% CI from 0.08 to 0.17) was observed at the national level. The highest impact was observed among children aged less than 19 years showing a 92% reduction (RR 0.8; 95% CI from 0.03 to 0.25). We observed higher impact in the dry zone having 91% reduction (RR 0.09; 95% CI from 0.05 to 0.15) compared to wet zone showing 83% reduction (RR 0.17; 95% CI from 0.09 to 0.30). There was no indication that the overall health-seeking behaviour for dengue had a substantial influence on these estimates. SIGNIFICANCE: This study offers a broad understanding of the change in risk of dengue during the COVID-19 pandemic and associated mobility restrictions in Sri Lanka. The analysis using the mobility restrictions as a natural experiment suggests mobility patterns to be a very important driver of dengue transmission.
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