Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34107968›Full record

ArticleRespiratory research2021

A risk-predictive model for invasive pulmonary aspergillosis in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Yu Gu, Xianping Ye, Yuxiu Liu, Yu Wang, Kunlu Shen, Jinjin Zhong, Bilin Chen, Xin Su

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Respiratory research, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.0field-weighted citation impact, top 22% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 24 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Research trends in COPD-associated invasive pulmonary aspergillosis over the past two decades: a bibliometric and topic modelling analysis.European journal of clinical microbiology & infectious diseases : official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology · 2026
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  12. Role of liposomal amphotericin B in intensive care unit: an expert opinion paper.Journal of anesthesia, analgesia and critical care · 2025
    Review
  13. Article
  14. Review
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  16. Improved diagnostic markers for invasive pulmonary aspergillosis in COPD patients.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2024
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Yu Gu *Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Jinling Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 210002, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7249-0174
Xianping Ye *Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Jinling Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 210002, China.
Yuxiu Liu *Department of Medical Statistics, The First School of Clinical Medicine, Southern Medical University, Nanjing, 210002, China.
Yu WangDepartment of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210002, China.
Kunlu ShenDepartment of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, The First School of Clinical Medicine, Southern Medical University, Nanjing, 210002, China.
Jinjin ZhongDepartment of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210002, China.
Bilin ChenDepartment of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210002, China.
Xin SuDepartment of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Jinling Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 210002, China. suxinjs@163.com.
Nanjing General Hospital of Nanjing Military Command · CNSouthern Medical University · CN

Funding

"333 project" of Jiangsu Province BRA2019339Beijing Bethune Charitable Foundation BJ-RW2020004Jthe Key Project of Jiangsu Commission of Health K2019004the Project of Natural Science Foundation of China 81873400the Project of Natural Science Foundation of China 82070011
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesInvasive pulmonary aspergillosis (IPA) is increasingly reported in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. These patients often have poor clinical outcomes. Early recognition of IPA in COPD is always challenging. We aimed to develop and validate a risk model using readily available clinical parameters to predict IPA for acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) patients.

methodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study. AECOPD patients who were admitted to Jinling Hospital between January 2012 and December 2017 were included. 880 AECOPD patients were randomly divided into the training set (70%, n = 616) and validation set (30%, n = 264). A nomogram model was developed using multivariate logistic regression from training set. The discrimination and calibration of model were validated internally. Decision curve analyses assessed the clinical utility of the nomogram.

resultsThe incidence of IPA in hospitalized AECOPD patients was 9.6% in the training set (59 cases of IPA) and 9.1% in the validation set (24 cases of IPA), respectively. The nomogram model consisted of independent factors associated with IPA included lung function GOLD III-IV, use of broad-spectrum antibiotic over 10 days in the last month, oral or intravenous corticosteroids (prednisone) over 265 mg in the last 3 months and serum albumin < 30 g/L. The model performed good discrimination and calibration in validation set (c-statistic, 0.79 [95%CI 0.68-0.90]). The 95%CI region of calibration belt did not cross the 45-degree diagonal bisector line (P = 0.887).

conclusionThe simple risk predictive model for earlier recognition of IPA is useful in hospitalized AECOPD patients.

Indexed as

Early DiagnosisAgedChinaComorbidityDisease ProgressionFemaleFollow-Up StudiesHumansInvasive Pulmonary AspergillosisMalePulmonary Disease, Chronic ObstructiveRetrospective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsAECOPDIPAModelNomogramRisk factors

Identifiers

PMID34107968
PMCPMC8188951
OpenAlexW3135178889

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.