ArticleScientific reports2021
A model and predictions for COVID-19 considering population behavior and vaccination.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 34 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
34 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Impact of the first booster vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 in Chile.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Comparative evaluation of behavioral epidemic models using COVID-19 data.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- An Epidemic Model with Infection Age and Vaccination Age Structure.Infectious disease reports · 2024Article
- Deep learning infused SIRVD model for COVID-19 prediction: XGBoost-SIRVD-LSTM approach.Frontiers in medicine · 2024Article
- Pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Acceptance of COVID-19 vaccine booster dose among the people of Bangladesh: A cross-sectional study.Heliyon · 2023Article
- Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA Vaccine Protection among Children and Adolescents Aged 12-17 Years against COVID-19 Infection in Qatar.Vaccines · 2023Article
- A fractional-order mathematical model based on vaccinated and infected compartments of SARS-CoV-2 with a real case study during the last stages of the epidemiological event.Journal of computational and applied mathematics · 2023Article
- The Role of Mobility in the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Andalusia.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2023Article
- Mathematical Modeling Evaluates How Vaccinations Affected the Course of COVID-19 Disease Progression.Vaccines · 2023Article
- Transmission trends of the global COVID-19 pandemic with combined effects of adaptive behaviours and vaccination.Epidemiology and infection · 2023Article
- A hybrid compartmental model with a case study of COVID-19 in Great Britain and Israel.Journal of mathematics in industry · 2023Article
- Human behavior in the time of COVID-19: Learning from big data.Frontiers in big data · 2023Review
- The impact of COVID-19 vaccination programme in the Republic of San Marino: Focus on effectiveness of Gam-Covid-Vac.Clinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases · 2022Observational
- A COVID-19 model incorporating variants, vaccination, waning immunity, and population behavior.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- A Modified PINN Approach for Identifiable Compartmental Models in Epidemiology with Application to COVID-19.Viruses · 2022Article
- Article
- Social mixing patterns relevant to infectious diseases spread by close contact in urban Blantyre, Malawi.Epidemics · 2022Article
- Modeling pandemic to endemic patterns of SARS-CoV-2 transmission using parameters estimated from animal model data.PNAS nexus · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The effect of vaccination coupled with the behavioral response of the population is not well understood. Our model incorporates two important dynamically varying population behaviors: level of caution and sense of safety. Level of caution increases with infectious cases, while an increasing sense of safety with increased vaccination lowers precautions. Our model accurately reproduces the complete time history of COVID-19 infections for various regions of the United States. We propose a parameter [Formula: see text] as a direct measure of a population's caution against an infectious disease that can be obtained from the infectious cases. The model provides quantitative measures of highest disease transmission rate, effective transmission rate, and cautionary behavior. We predict future COVID-19 trends in the United States accounting for vaccine rollout and behavior. Although a high rate of vaccination is critical to quickly ending the pandemic, a return towards pre-pandemic social behavior due to increased sense of safety during vaccine deployment can cause an alarming surge in infections. Our results predict that at the current rate of vaccination, the new infection cases for COVID-19 in the United States will approach zero by August 2021. This model can be used for other regions and for future epidemics and pandemics.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.