Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34103325›Full record

ArticleBMJ global health2021

The secondary transmission pattern of COVID-19 based on contact tracing in Rwanda.

Muhammed Semakula, FranÇois Niragire, Angela Umutoni, Sabin Nsanzimana, Vedaste Ndahindwa, Edison Rwagasore, Thierry Nyatanyi, Eric Remera, Christel Faes

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ global health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  12. Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Bhutan.BioMed research international · 2022
    Observational
  13. Review
  14. Building toward useful SARS-CoV-2 models in Africa.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Muhammed SemakulaCenter for Excellence in Data Science, University of Rwanda - Kigali Campus, Kigali, Rwanda semakulam@gmail.com.
FranÇois NiragireApplied Statistics, University of Rwanda College of Business and Economics - Gikondo Campus, Kigali, Rwanda.
Angela UmutoniInstitute for HIV, Diseases Prevention and Control, Rwanda Biomedical Center, Kigali, Rwanda.
Sabin NsanzimanaInstitute for HIV, Diseases Prevention and Control, Rwanda Biomedical Center, Kigali, Rwanda.
Vedaste NdahindwaCollege of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Rwanda, Kigali, Rwanda.
Edison RwagasoreRwanda Biomedical Center, Rwanda Ministry of Health, Kigali, Rwanda.
Thierry NyatanyiInstitute for HIV, Diseases Prevention and Control, Rwanda Biomedical Center, Kigali, Rwanda.
Eric RemeraInstitute for HIV, Diseases Prevention and Control, Rwanda Biomedical Center, Kigali, Rwanda.ORCID 0000-0002-6084-8877
Christel FaesBioStat, Hasselt Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics Center, Diepenbeek, Limburg, Belgium.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionCOVID-19 has shown an exceptionally high spread rate across and within countries worldwide. Understanding the dynamics of such an infectious disease transmission is critical for devising strategies to control its spread. In particular, Rwanda was one of the African countries that started COVID-19 preparedness early in January 2020, and a total lockdown was imposed when the country had only 18 COVID-19 confirmed cases known. Using intensive contact tracing, several infections were identified, with the majority of them being returning travellers and their close contacts. We used the contact tracing data in Rwanda for understanding the geographic patterns of COVID-19 to inform targeted interventions.

methodsWe estimated the attack rates and identified risk factors associated to COVID-19 spread. We used Bayesian disease mapping models to assess the spatial pattern of COVID-19 and to identify areas characterised by unusually high or low relative risk. In addition, we used multiple variable conditional logistic regression to assess the impact of the risk factors.

resultsThe results showed that COVID-19 cases in Rwanda are localised mainly in the central regions and in the southwest of Rwanda and that some clusters occurred in the northeast of Rwanda. Relationship to the index case, being male and coworkers are the important risk factors for COVID-19 transmission in Rwanda.

conclusionThe analysis of contact tracing data using spatial modelling allowed us to identify high-risk areas at subnational level in Rwanda. Estimating risk factors for infection with SARS-CoV-2 is vital in identifying the clusters in low spread of SARS-CoV-2 subnational level. It is imperative to understand the interactions between the index case and contacts to identify superspreaders, risk factors and high-risk places. The findings recommend that self-isolation at home in Rwanda should be reviewed to limit secondary cases from the same households and spatiotemporal analysis should be introduced in routine monitoring of COVID-19 in Rwanda for policy making decision on real time.

Indexed as

Contact TracingBayes TheoremCommunicable Disease ControlCOVID-19HumansMaleRwandaSARS-CoV-2COVID-19epidemiology

Identifiers

PMID34103325
PMCPMC8189754

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.