Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34100704›Full record

ArticleJournal of studies on alcohol and drugs2021

Drinking Intensity at Age 29/30 as a Predictor of Alcohol Use Disorder Symptoms at Age 35 in a National Sample.

Megan E Patrick, Rebecca J Evans-Polce, Michael J Parks, Yvonne M Terry-McElrath

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of studies on alcohol and drugs, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
25citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

25 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Sex-specific neural activation to stress and alcohol cues in high-risk drinkers: links between orbitofrontal circuits, alcohol craving, and future drinking.Neuropsychopharmacology : official publication of the American College of Neuropsychopharmacology · 2026
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  9. Short-term changes in social role statuses across young adulthood and their relation to heavy drinking in a given month.Journal of research on adolescence : the official journal of the Society for Research on Adolescence · 2024
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  14. Drinking context, alcohol use, and subjective responses during binge drinking episodes measured by high-resolution ecological momentary assessment (HR-EMA).Psychology of addictive behaviors : journal of the Society of Psychologists in Addictive Behaviors · 2023
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  19. Patterns and predictors of high-intensity drinking and implications for intervention.Psychology of addictive behaviors : journal of the Society of Psychologists in Addictive Behaviors · 2022
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Megan E PatrickInstitute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Rebecca J Evans-PolceCenter for the Study of Drugs, Alcohol, Smoking and Health, School of Nursing, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Michael J ParksInstitute for Translational Research in Children's Mental Health, Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Yvonne M Terry-McElrathInstitute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan.

Funding

Monitoring the Future: Drug Use & Lifestyles of American Youth (Supp1: Nicotine Pouch and E-cigarette Use Among US Adolescents: National Estimates of Brand Use and Flavor Preferences)R01DA001411 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI Richard A Miech · 1985 to 2026
$144.9M
Monitoring the Future: A Cohort-Sequential Panel Study of Drug Use, Ages 19-65 - Diversity Supplement (Solberg)R01DA016575 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI Megan E. Patrick · 2003 to 2026
$44.6M
High-intensity drinking and related consequences: Daily data from a national sample aged 19 to 22R01AA023504 · NIAAA · UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA · PI PATRICK, MEGAN E. · 2015 to 2022
$3.5M
NIAAA NIH HHS R01 AA023504NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA001411NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA016575
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveThe purpose of this longitudinal study was to identify associations of drinking intensity at age 29/30 with symptoms of alcohol use disorder (AUD) at age 35.

methodAnalyses used national longitudinal data from 1,253 individuals (53.5% female) participating in the Monitoring the Future study. Age 29/30 data were collected from 2005 to 2013; age 35 data were collected from 2010 to 2018. Multivariable models regressed age 35 past-5-year AUD symptoms (vs. nondisordered drinking/abstinence) on age 29/30 past-2-week drinking intensity (no/low [0-4] drinking, binge [5-9] drinking, high-intensity [10+] drinking), with key covariates being controlled for.

resultsAt age 35, 32.6% (SE = 1.50) of respondents reported AUD symptoms. AUD symptoms at age 35 were reported by 77.5% (SE = 4.79) of participants who reported age 29/30 high-intensity drinking and 60.6% (SE = 3.95) of participants who reported age 29/30 binge drinking. Age 35 past-5-year abstinence was reported by almost no respondents reporting age 29/30 binge drinking or high-intensity drinking. AUD symptoms at age 35 were significantly more likely for those who reported binge (adjusted multivariable odds ratio [AOR] = 5.61, 95% CI [3.79, 8.30], p < .001) or high-intensity (AOR = 12.26, 95% CI [6.70, 22.41], p < .001) drinking versus no/low drinking at age 29/30. The likelihood of having AUD symptoms was significantly higher for high-intensity than for binge drinkers (AOR = 2.18, 95% CI [1.14, 4.19], p = .019).

conclusionsNearly 80% of those young adults who reported engaging in high-intensity drinking (10+ drinks in a row) at age 29/30 later reported AUD symptoms at age 35. High-intensity drinking appears to be a strong prospective marker of risk for AUD symptoms among adults in the United States.

Indexed as

AlcoholismBinge DrinkingAdultAlcohol DrinkingFemaleHumansLongitudinal StudiesMaleProspective StudiesUnited StatesYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID34100704
PMCPMC8328234

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.