ArticleAnnals of internal medicine2021
Passing the Test: A Model-Based Analysis of Safe School-Reopening Strategies.
Article in Annals of internal medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 26 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
26 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 31 citations in OpenAlex.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Measures implemented in the school setting to contain the COVID-19 pandemicThe Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2022Pooled it
- At-Home Versus Onsite COVID-19 School-based Testing: A Randomized Noninferiority Trial.Pediatrics · 2023Trial
- Impact of kindergarten structures on the dynamics of hand, foot, and mouth disease and the effects of intervention strategies: an agent-based modeling study.BMC medicine · 2025Article
- COVID-19 Incidence and Age Eligibility for Elementary School.JAMA network open · 2024Article
- Incorporating social determinants of health into transmission modeling of COVID-19 vaccine in the US: a scoping review.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2024Article
- Screening Strategies to Reduce COVID-19 Mortality in Nursing Homes.JAMA health forum · 2024Article
- Effects of School-Based Preventive Measures on COVID-19 Incidence, Hong Kong, 2022.Emerging infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Building School-Academic Partnerships to Implement COVID-19 Testing in Underserved Populations.Pediatrics · 2023Article
- The illusion of personal health decisions for infectious disease management: disease spread in social contact networks.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Modelling the impact of school reopening and contact tracing strategies on Covid-19 dynamics in different epidemiologic settings in Brazil.Global epidemiology · 2022Article
- A simulation-deep reinforcement learning (SiRL) approach for epidemic control optimization.Annals of operations research · 2022Article
- COVID-19 Testing Strategies for K-12 Schools in California: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Estimated Transmission Outcomes and Costs of SARS-CoV-2 Diagnostic Testing, Screening, and Surveillance Strategies Among a Simulated Population of Primary School Students.JAMA pediatrics · 2022Article
- Modelling results on the impact of COVID-19 testing in schools.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Assessing the impact of lateral flow testing strategies on within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and absences: A modelling study.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Adventures in COVID-19 Policy Modeling: Education Edition.Current HIV/AIDS reports · 2022Review
- Model-Estimated Association Between Simulated US Elementary School-Related SARS-CoV-2 Transmission, Mitigation Interventions, and Vaccine Coverage Across Local Incidence Levels.JAMA network open · 2022Article
- Within and between classroom transmission patterns of seasonal influenza among primary school students in Matsumoto city, Japan.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021Article
- Weekly SARS-CoV-2 screening of asymptomatic kindergarten to grade 12 students and staff helps inform strategies for safer in-person learning.Cell reports. Medicine · 2021Observational
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
- Erratum issued
- Update of
Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has induced historic educational disruptions. In April 2021, about 40% of U.S. public school students were not offered full-time in-person education.
objectiveTo assess the risk for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools.
designAn agent-based network model was developed to simulate transmission in elementary and high school communities, including home, school, and interhousehold interactions.
settingSchool structure was parametrized to reflect average U.S. classrooms, with elementary schools of 638 students and high schools of 1451 students. Daily local incidence was varied from 1 to 100 cases per 100 000 persons.
participantsStudents, faculty, staff, and adult household members.
interventionIsolation of symptomatic individuals, quarantine of an infected individual's contacts, reduced class sizes, alternative schedules, staff vaccination, and weekly asymptomatic screening. MEASUREMENTS: Transmission was projected among students, staff, and families after a single infection in school and over an 8-week quarter, contingent on local incidence.
resultsSchool transmission varies according to student age and local incidence and is substantially reduced with mitigation measures. Nevertheless, when transmission occurs, it may be difficult to detect without regular testing because of the subclinical nature of most children's infections. Teacher vaccination can reduce transmission to staff, and asymptomatic screening improves understanding of local circumstances and reduces transmission. LIMITATION: Uncertainty exists about the susceptibility and infectiousness of children, and precision is low regarding the effectiveness of specific countermeasures, particularly with new variants.
conclusionWith controlled community transmission and moderate mitigation, elementary schools can open safety, but high schools require more intensive mitigation. Asymptomatic screening can facilitate reopening at higher local incidence while minimizing transmission risk. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention through the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institute on Drug Abuse, and Facebook.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.