ArticleBMC public health2021
Analysis on the trend of AIDS incidence in Zhejiang, China based on the age-period-cohort model (2004-2018).
Article in BMC public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 16 citations in OpenAlex.
- Age-period-cohort analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis epidemiological trends from 2005 to 2024 and forecasts for 2035 in Sichuan Province, China.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- The sex differences in diseases progression and prognosis among persons with HIV and HBV coinfection.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- The changing molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 in Liangshan prefecture, China, in 2021-2023.Frontiers in microbiology · 2025Article
- Deep learning models for hepatitis E incidence prediction leveraging Baidu index.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Article
- The trend of AIDS in China: A prediction and comparative analysis with G20 countries based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.Journal of global health · 2024Article
- Spatiotemporal Pattern and Its Determinants for Newly Reported HIV/AIDS Among Older Adults in Eastern China From 2004 to 2021: Retrospective Analysis Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Studying the impacts of variant evolution for a generalized age-group transmission model.PloS one · 2024Article
- Epidemiological Analysis of HIV/AIDS in Kazakhstan During 2018-2020.Journal of research in health sciences · 2023Article
- Spatial distribution and temporal trends of AIDS in Brazil and regions between 2005 and 2020.Revista brasileira de epidemiologia = Brazilian journal of epidemiology · 2023Article
- Epidemiology and Clinical Outcomes of HIV Infection in South-Central China: A Retrospective Study From 2003 to 2018.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Long-Term Changes of HIV/AIDS Incidence Rate in China and the U.S. Population From 1994 to 2019: A Join-Point and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveTo predict the trend of AIDS in specific age groups and to determine the objective population for AIDS screening, this study explored the three transmission routes and characterized each patient group using the APC model based on the whole, local, and immigrant populations in Zhejiang, China.
methodsThe data recruited in this paper was obtained from the national Comprehensive AIDS Prevention and Control Information System - Antiviral Therapy Management database and the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System and the Statistical Yearbook of Zhejiang, China. An APC model was used to estimate the impact of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of AIDS, as well as to predict the AIDS incidence in specific age groups based on different sexes with different transmission routes.
resultsThe AIDS incidence peaked in males aged 20-35 years; the incidence of males was higher than that of females due to the impact of period; obvious cohort effect was observed among the immigrants. In the whole and local populations, the incidences of males in all age groups and females in both the 35-year-old group and the whole age group were predicted to increase sharply in 5 years. In the immigrant population, the AIDS incidences in both sexes in all age groups were expected to increase significantly in 5 years. Under the influence of period, the incidence of AIDS via homosexual transmission in the whole population and the local population increased and remained stable after 2015. At the same time, the incidence of AIDS transmitted by homosexual and heterosexual routes in the immigrants also showed an increasing trend.
conclusionsThe results elucidate that there are sex differences in AIDS incidence, and the incidence of AIDS through various transmission routes in all groups is predicted to exhibit an upward trend in the 5 years to come. Effective intervention strategies should be developed and implemented by the public health departments in Zhejiang to control the epidemic of AIDS.
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