Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34089063›Full record

ArticleIntensive care medicine2021

Predictors of death and new disability after critical illness: a multicentre prospective cohort study.

A M Higgins, A Serpa Neto, M Bailey, J Barrett, R Bellomo, D J Cooper, B J Gabbe, N Linke, P S Myles, M Paton and 5 more

2 registry-linked trialsAbstract readMulticenter Study
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Intensive care medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 2 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 24 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT03226912 completednot on this map

The PREDICT Study- a Registry in Critically Ill Patients to Determine Predictors of Disability Free Survival

TypeobservationalSponsorAustralian and New Zealand Intensive Care Research CentreRan2017 to 2020Enrolled500ConditionsCritical Illness, Mechanical Ventilation Complication, Disabilities Multiple, Quality of Life
NCT05392010 unknown statusnot on this mapstarted 2022, after this paper: background citation

Assessment of Clinical Practice of Mechanical Ventilation After COVID-19 Pan-demic Among 57 Countries: A Systematic Analysis for the Global BurdEn of Me-chanIcal VeNtilatIon (GEMINI Study) 2022, From VENTILAGROUP.

Typeobservational_patient_registrySponsorHospital Universitario GetafeRan2022 to 2024Enrolled10,900ConditionsMechanical Ventilation, Usual Care, Noninvasive Positive Pressure Ventilation, High Flow Oxygen TherapyArmsno intervention
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  6. Rinaldo Bellomo and the evolution of critical care survivorship.Critical care and resuscitation : journal of the Australasian Academy of Critical Care Medicine · 2025
    Article
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  20. Comparison of 6-Month Outcomes of Survivors of COVID-19 versus Non-COVID-19 Critical Illness.American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine · 2022
    Observational
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

A M HigginsAustralian and New Zealand Intensive Care Research Centre, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Rd, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia.
A Serpa NetoAustralian and New Zealand Intensive Care Research Centre, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Rd, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia.
M BaileyAustralian and New Zealand Intensive Care Research Centre, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Rd, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia.
J BarrettIntensive Care Unit, Epworth Healthcare, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
R BellomoAustralian and New Zealand Intensive Care Research Centre, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Rd, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia.
D J CooperAustralian and New Zealand Intensive Care Research Centre, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Rd, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia.
B J GabbeSchool of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
N LinkeAustralian and New Zealand Intensive Care Research Centre, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Rd, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia.
P S MylesSchool of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
M PatonAustralian and New Zealand Intensive Care Research Centre, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Rd, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia.
S PhilpotIntensive Care Unit, Cabrini Health, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
M ShulmanSchool of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
M YoungDepartment of Intensive Care and Hyperbaric Medicine, The Alfred, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
C L HodgsonAustralian and New Zealand Intensive Care Research Centre, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Rd, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia. carol.hodgson@monash.edu.ORCID 0000-0001-9002-2075
PREDICT Study Investigators

Funding

National Health and Medical Research Council GNT1132976National Health and Medical Research Council GNT1173271National Heart Foundation of Australia Hodgson Fellowship
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeThis study aimed to determine the prevalence and predictors of death or new disability following critical illness.

methodsProspective, multicentre cohort study conducted in six metropolitan intensive care units (ICU). Participants were adults admitted to the ICU who received more than 24 h of mechanical ventilation. The primary outcome was death or new disability at 6 months, with new disability defined by a 10% increase in the WHODAS 2.0.

resultsOf 628 patients with the primary outcome available (median age of 62 [49-71] years, 379 [61.0%] had a medical admission and 370 (58.9%) died or developed new disability by 6 months. Independent predictors of death or new disability included age [OR 1.02 (1.01-1.03), P = 0.001], higher severity of illness (APACHE III) [OR 1.02 (1.01-1.03), P < 0.001] and admission diagnosis. Compared to patients with a surgical admission diagnosis, patients with a cardiac arrest [OR (95% CI) 4.06 (1.89-8.68), P < 0.001], sepsis [OR (95% CI) 2.43 (1.32-4.47), P = 0.004], or trauma [OR (95% CI) 6.24 (3.07-12.71), P < 0.001] diagnosis had higher odds of death or new disability, while patients with a lung transplant [OR (95% CI) 0.21 (0.07-0.58), P = 0.003] diagnosis had lower odds. A model including these three variables had good calibration (Brier score 0.20) and acceptable discriminative power with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.80).

conclusionLess than half of all patients mechanically ventilated for more than 24 h were alive and free of new disability at 6 months after admission to ICU. A model including age, illness severity and admission diagnosis has acceptable discriminative ability to predict death or new disability at 6 months.

Indexed as

Critical IllnessIntensive Care UnitsAdultAgedAPACHECohort StudiesHumansInfantMiddle AgedProspective StudiesDisabilityIntensive careMechanical ventilationOutcome predictionRecovery

Identifiers

What OpenQuestion holds

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Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.