Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34081611›Full record

ArticleJournal of medical Internet research2021

Predictive Modeling of Morbidity and Mortality in Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 and its Clinical Implications: Algorithm Development and Interpretation.

Joshua M Wang, Wenke Liu, Xiaoshan Chen, Michael P McRae, John T McDevitt, David Fenyö

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of medical Internet research, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Review
  4. Predictors of COVID-19 severity among pregnant patients.Bosnian journal of basic medical sciences · 2022
    Article
  5. Predicting hospitalization of COVID-19 positive patients using clinician-guided machine learning methods.Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA · 2022
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Learning and Predicting from Dynamic Models for COVID-19 Patient Monitoring.Statistical science : a review journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics · 2022
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Joshua M WangInstitute for Systems Genetics, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, United States.ORCID 0000-0003-3706-6559
Wenke LiuInstitute for Systems Genetics, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, United States.ORCID 0000-0002-4014-4477
Xiaoshan ChenDepartment of Medicine, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, United States.ORCID 0000-0002-8003-2330
Michael P McRaeDepartment of Biomaterials, Bioengineering Institute, New York University, New York, NY, United States.ORCID 0000-0002-2126-9442
John T McDevittDepartment of Biomaterials, Bioengineering Institute, New York University, New York, NY, United States.ORCID 0000-0001-8789-9351
David FenyöInstitute for Systems Genetics, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, United States.ORCID 0000-0001-5049-3825

Funding

Project-005UL1TR001445 · NCATS · NEW YORK UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE · PI BREDELLA, MIRIAM ANTOINETTE, HOCHMAN, JUDITH S · 2015 to 2025
$103.5M
Medical Scientist Research Service AwardT32GM136573 · NIGMS · NEW YORK UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE · PI SULMAN, ERIK · 2020 to 2024
$6.8M
NRSA Training CoreTL1TR001447 · NCATS · NEW YORK UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE · PI MICOLI, KEITH J. · 2015 to 2025
$5.9M
NCATS NIH HHS TL1 TR001447NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001445NIGMS NIH HHS T32 GM136573
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2021 and placed significant strains on health care systems worldwide. There remains a compelling need to analyze factors that are predictive for patients at elevated risk of morbidity and mortality.

objectiveThe goal of this retrospective study of patients who tested positive with COVID-19 and were treated at NYU (New York University) Langone Health was to identify clinical markers predictive of disease severity in order to assist in clinical decision triage and to provide additional biological insights into disease progression.

methodsThe clinical activity of 3740 patients at NYU Langone Hospital was obtained between January and August 2020; patient data were deidentified. Models were trained on clinical data during different parts of their hospital stay to predict three clinical outcomes: deceased, ventilated, or admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

resultsThe XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) model that was trained on clinical data from the final 24 hours excelled at predicting mortality (area under the curve [AUC]=0.92; specificity=86%; and sensitivity=85%). Respiration rate was the most important feature, followed by SpO

conclusionsTogether, this work summarizes efforts to systematically examine the importance of a wide range of features across different endpoint outcomes and at different hospitalization time points.

Indexed as

AlgorithmsHospitalizationAdolescentAdultAgedArea Under CurveChildChild, PreschoolCOVID-19Diabetes MellitusFemaleHospitalsHumansInfantInfant, NewbornIntensive Care UnitscoronavirusCOVID-19decision makinghospitalmachine learningmarkermodelmorbiditymortalityNew York Cityoutcomepredictionpredictive modelingSARS-CoV-2severitysymptom

Identifiers

PMID34081611
PMCPMC8274681

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.