ArticleInternational journal of general medicine2021
Establishment and Evaluation of a Time Series Model for Predicting the Seasonality of Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.
Article in International journal of general medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Secondary peritoneal and retroperitoneal malignancies in the elderly: trends and disparities (1999-2022) with forecasts to 2035 from a national study.Cancer causes & control : CCC · 2025Article
- The Description and Prediction of Incidence, Prevalence, Mortality, Disability-Adjusted Life Years Cases, and Corresponding Age-Standardized Rates for Global Diabetes.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2023Article
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8 authors.
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Abstract
objectiveWe aimed to establish and evaluate a time series model for predicting the seasonality of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB).
methodsPatients with acute UGIB who were admitted to the Emergency Department and Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Center of Guangdong Provincial Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine from January 2013 to December 2019 were enrolled in the present study. The incidence trend of UGIB was analyzed by seasonal decomposition method. Then, exponential smoothing model and autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) were used to establish the model and forecast, respectively.
resultsFinally, the exponential smoothing model with better fitting and prediction effect was selected. The smooth R2 was 0.586, and the Ljung-Box Q (18) statistic value was 22.272 (P = 0.135). The incidence of UGIB had an obvious seasonal trend, with a peak in annual January and a seasonal factor of 140%. After that, the volatility had gradually declined, with a trough in August and a seasonal factor of 67.8%. Since then, it had gradually increased.
conclusionThe prediction effect of exponential smoothing model is better, which can provide prevention and treatment strategies for UGIB, and provide objective guidance for more medical staff in Emergency Department and Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Center during the peak period of UGIB.
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