Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34079102›Full record

ReviewNature reviews. Clinical oncology2021

Planning for tomorrow: global cancer incidence and the role of prevention 2020-2070.

Isabelle Soerjomataram, Freddie Bray

Abstract readReview
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Review in Nature reviews. Clinical oncology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 500 papers, 11 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
500citing papers in PubMed, 11 pooled it
53.7field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

500 citing papers in PubMed, 11 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 934 citations in OpenAlex.

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440 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Isabelle SoerjomataramCancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France. soerjomatarami@iarc.fr.
Freddie BrayCancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
Centre International de Recherche sur le Cancer · FR

Funding

World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Cancer is currently the first or second most common contributor to premature mortality in most countries of the world. The global number of patients with cancer is expected to rise over the next 50 years owing to the strong influence of demographic changes, such as population ageing and growth, on the diverging trends in cancer incidence in different regions. Assuming that the latest incidence trends continue for the major cancer types, we predict a doubling of the incidence of all cancers combined by 2070 relative to 2020. The greatest increases are predicted in lower-resource settings, in countries currently assigned a low Human Development Index (HDI), whereas the predicted increases in national burden diminish with increasing levels of national HDI. Herein, we assess studies modelling the future burden of cancer that underscore how comprehensive cancer prevention strategies can markedly reduce the prevalence of major risk factors and, in so doing, the number of future cancer cases. Focusing on an in-depth assessment of prevention strategies that target tobacco smoking, overweight and obesity, and human papillomavirus infection, we discuss how stepwise, population-level approaches with amenable goals can avert millions of future cancer diagnoses worldwide. In the absence of a step-change in cancer prevention delivery, tobacco smoking will remain the leading preventable cause of cancer, and overweight and obesity might well present a comparable opportunity for prevention, given its increasing prevalence globally in the past few decades. Countries must therefore instigate national cancer control programmes aimed at preventing cancer, and with some urgency, if such programmes are to yield the desired public health and economic benefits in this century.

Indexed as

Age DistributionAge FactorsGlobal HealthHealth Status DisparitiesHumansIncidenceLife ExpectancyNeoplasmsPopulation DynamicsRisk Factors

Identifiers

PMID34079102
OpenAlexW3164332865

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.