ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2021
Estimation of Undetected Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases in South Korea Using a Probabilistic Model.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- New framework to assess tracing and testing based on South Korea's response to COVID-19.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Review
- Modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model for assessing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Seoul.Journal of theoretical biology · 2023Article
- Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Transmission and Intervention in South Korea: A Review of Literature.Yonsei medical journal · 2023Review
- Role of Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases in Viral Transmission: Findings From a Hierarchical Community Contact Network Model.IEEE transactions on automation science and engineering : a publication of the IEEE Robotics and Automation Society · 2022Article
- Early and long term antibody kinetics of asymptomatic and mild disease COVID-19 patients.Scientific reports · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Increasing evidence shows that many infections of COVID-19 are asymptomatic, becoming a global challenge, since asymptomatic infections have the same infectivity as symptomatic infections. We developed a probabilistic model for estimating the proportion of undetected asymptomatic COVID-19 patients in the country. We considered two scenarios: one is conservative and the other is nonconservative. By combining the above two scenarios, we gave an interval estimation of 0.0001-0.0027 and in terms of the population, 5200-139,900 is the number of undetected asymptomatic cases in South Korea as of 2 February 2021. In addition, we provide estimates for total cases of COVID-19 in South Korea. Combination of undetected asymptomatic cases and undetected symptomatic cases to the number of confirmed cases (78,844 cases on 2 February 2021) shows that 0.17-0.42% (89,244-218,744) of the population have COVID-19. In conclusion, to control and understand the true ongoing reality of the pandemic, it is of outermost importance to focus on the ratio of undetected asymptomatic cases in the total population.
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Registered trials
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