ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2021
Forecasting of Lung Cancer Incident Cases at the Small-Area Level in Victoria, Australia.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Time-Series Forecasting of Radiotherapy Utilization in Older Adults in Southern Thailand's Largest Quaternary Hospital: A Retrospective Study.Asian Pacific journal of cancer prevention : APJCP · 2026Article
- Regression Modeling of ZAP-X Treatment Time.Cureus · 2025Article
- Patient- and Areal-Level Risk Factors Associated With Lung Cancer Mortality in Victoria, Australia: A Bayesian Spatial Survival Analysis.Cancer medicine · 2024Article
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- Development of an Australia and New Zealand Lung Cancer Clinical Quality Registry: a protocol paper.BMJ open · 2022Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
Predicting lung cancer cases at the small-area level is helpful to quantify the lung cancer burden for health planning purposes at the local geographic level. Using Victorian Cancer Registry (2001-2018) data, this study aims to forecast lung cancer counts at the local government area (LGA) level over the next ten years (2019-2028) in Victoria, Australia. We used the Age-Period-Cohort approach to estimate the annual age-specific incidence and utilised Bayesian spatio-temporal models that account for non-linear temporal trends and area-level risk factors. Compared to 2001, lung cancer incidence increased by 28.82% from 1353 to 1743 cases for men and 78.79% from 759 to 1357 cases for women in 2018. Lung cancer counts are expected to reach 2515 cases for men and 1909 cases for women in 2028, with a corresponding 44% and 41% increase. The majority of LGAs are projected to have an increasing trend for both men and women by 2028. Unexplained area-level spatial variation substantially reduced after adjusting for the elderly population in the model. Male and female lung cancer cases are projected to rise at the state level and in each LGA in the next ten years. Population growth and an ageing population largely contributed to this rise.
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