ArticlePhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences2021
Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 with waning immunity in the UK population.
Article in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed, 38 citations in OpenAlex.
- A general framework for modeling pathogen transmission in co-roosting host communities.Ecology · 2026Article
- Leaky or polarised immunity: Non-Markovian modelling highlights the impact of immune memory assumptions.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- An agent-based model with antibody dynamics information in COVID-19 epidemic simulation.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Comparing intervention measures in a model of a disease outbreak on a university campus.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Prediction of the next major outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China and a vaccination strategy for it.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Sensitivity of endemic behaviour of COVID-19 under a multi-dose vaccination regime, to various biological parameters and control variables.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Susceptibility to Resurgent COVID-19 Outbreaks Following Vaccine Rollouts: A Modeling Study.Viruses · 2022Article
- Modeling pandemic to endemic patterns of SARS-CoV-2 transmission using parameters estimated from animal model data.PNAS nexus · 2022Article
- mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccines elicit antibodies with differences in Fc-mediated effector functions.Science translational medicine · 2022Article
- Unpacking the Implications of SARS-CoV-2 Breakthrough Infections on COVID-19 Vaccination Programs.Vaccines · 2022Article
- Evaluating strategies for spatial allocation of vaccines based on risk and centrality.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- Describing a landscape we are yet discovering.Advances in statistical analysis : AStA : a journal of the German Statistical Society · 2022Review
- Article
- Community structured model for vaccine strategies to control COVID19 spread: A mathematical study.PloS one · 2022Article
- Disease transmission and control modelling at the science-policy interface.Interface focus · 2021Article
- The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: remaining uncertainties in our understanding of the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the virus, and challenges to be overcome.Interface focus · 2021Review
- Subtle immunological differences in mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine induced Fc-functional profiles.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2021Article
- Epidemic interventions: insights from classic results.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2021Article
- Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2021Article
- The risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in low prevalence settings following the removal of travel restrictions.Communications medicine · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
12 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
The dynamics of immunity are crucial to understanding the long-term patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Several cases of reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 have been documented 48-142 days after the initial infection and immunity to seasonal circulating coronaviruses is estimated to be shorter than 1 year. Using an age-structured, deterministic model, we explore potential immunity dynamics using contact data from the UK population. In the scenario where immunity to SARS-CoV-2 lasts an average of three months for non-hospitalized individuals, a year for hospitalized individuals, and the effective reproduction number after lockdown ends is 1.2 (our worst-case scenario), we find that the secondary peak occurs in winter 2020 with a daily maximum of 387 000 infectious individuals and 125 000 daily new cases; threefold greater than in a scenario with permanent immunity. Our models suggest that longitudinal serological surveys to determine if immunity in the population is waning will be most informative when sampling takes place from the end of the lockdown in June until autumn 2020. After this period, the proportion of the population with antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 is expected to increase due to the secondary wave. Overall, our analysis presents considerations for policy makers on the longer-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK and suggests that strategies designed to achieve herd immunity may lead to repeated waves of infection as immunity to reinfection is not permanent. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.
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