ArticlePhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences2021
The population attributable fraction of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies.
Article in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Role of Gut Microbiota in Long COVID: Impact on Immune Function and Organ System Health.Archives of microbiology & immunology · 2025Article
- Transmission Potential of Human Monkeypox in Mass Gatherings.Open forum infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Infectious disease dynamics and restrictions on social gathering size.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2022Article
- A longitudinal study of the impact of university student return to campus on the SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among the community members.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in a University Community: A Longitudinal Study of the Impact of Student Return to Campus on Infection Risk Among Community Members.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2021Article
- Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2021Article
- A novel approach for evaluating contact patterns and risk mitigation strategies for COVID-19 in English primary schools with application of structured expert judgement.Royal Society open science · 2021Article
- Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing, and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings: a mathematical modelling study.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Many countries have banned groups and gatherings as part of their response to the pandemic caused by the coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. Although there are outbreak reports involving mass gatherings, the contribution to overall transmission is unknown. We used data from a survey of social contact behaviour that specifically asked about contact with groups to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) due to groups as the relative change in the basic reproduction number when groups are prevented. Groups of 50+ individuals accounted for 0.5% of reported contact events, and we estimate that the PAF due to groups of 50+ people is 5.4% (95% confidence interval 1.4%, 11.5%). The PAF due to groups of 20+ people is 18.9% (12.7%, 25.7%) and the PAF due to groups of 10+ is 25.2% (19.4%, 31.4%). Under normal circumstances with pre-COVID-19 contact patterns, large groups of individuals have a relatively small epidemiological impact; small- and medium-sized groups between 10 and 50 people have a larger impact on an epidemic. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.
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